This Nov. 6, 2013 file photo shows a Whiting Petroleum Co. pump jack pulls crude oil from the Bakken region of the Northern Plains near Bainville, Mont.The Associated Press
Jennifer Dowty, a Chartered Financial Analyst, writes exclusively for Globe Unlimited subscribers.
This morning, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its crude oil inventory data. U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 6.8 million barrels from the previous week. The Street was expecting a decline of 1.23 million barrels.
The price of oil is up from yesterday but is off from the highs of the day. The price of oil has been locked in a tight trading range for the past two months, between $57.50 a barrel and $62 a barrel. Crude oil is currently over $61 and while it could break the upper boundary of this range, a positive breakout I would view as temporary as the supply of oil remains at high levels. In today's EIA report released by the U.S. Department of Energy, it was noted that, "U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not see for this time of year in at least the last 80 years."
The bottom line: In the very near-term, crude oil may remain at elevated levels in the $60 price range, especially with the driving season around the corner. However, Saudi Arabia crude oil production remains in record territory after a cut in production was not announced at the recent OPEC meeting. The next meeting is not until December.
In addition, we may have additional oil supply flooding the market if there is a deal with Iran and export sanctions are lifted. In other words, there appears to be ample supply to meet demand. For this reason, unless demand accelerates, the price of oil may retrace back into the mid $50s in the months ahead. Crude oil volatility will likely persist. The energy sector was the worst performing sector in the S&P/TSX composite index and this morning, is the sector leader in the index. Remember, what goes up, must come down. This rally may just be a dead cat bounce.
Jennifer Dowty