Thursday's analyst upgrades and downgrades

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Inside the Market's roundup of some of today's key analyst actions. This file will be updated during the trading day.

Analysts' price targets on National Bank of Canada are going up after the financial institution Wednesday reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results.

There has also been at least one ratings upgrade: CIBC World Markets revised its recommendation to "sector performer" from "sector underperformer," as it raised its price target to $54 (Canadian) from $51.

National Bank reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.20 (Canadian), beating the Street consensus of $1.11. Trading revenues spiked 26 per cent over the past quarter, and fee-based income was strong, with credit and card services fees enjoying a lift.

The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio - a measure of a bank's financial strength - improved to 9.1 per cent from 8.7 per cent. However, that level is still well below its larger peers. National Bank management commented that it would not buyback more shares until the ratio was about 9.5 per cent.

"With Personal & Commercial Banking delivering a better result and with the higher CET1 ratio dulling the capital issue, the bank's relative position has improved, in our view," commented CIBC analyst Robert Sedran in a note about his upgrade.

Elsewhere, Desjardins Securities raised its price target on National Bank of Canada to $52 (Canadian) from $48 and reiterated a "hold" rating. And Credit Suisse raised its target to $55 from $50 and maintained a "neutral" rating.

"We expect National Bank's relative price-to-earnings discount to narrow given its above average growth outlook," Credit Suisse commented in a note. "Our 2015/2016 (earnings) estimates have increased by 2 per cent, reflecting stronger earnings growth for National Bank's Financial Markets segment."

The average price target among analysts is now $52.15, according to the latest Bloomberg data.

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UBS analyst Keith Siegner thinks Burger King Worldwide Inc. shares are a buy for investors right now, believing comments from company management this week may be too conservative when it comes to the cost synergies and tax savings that will result from the marriage with Tim Hortons.

"Despite tempered synergy commentary on the conference call and an approximate 15 per cent rise in BKW shares since the initial announcement, we continue to be optimistic of the long-term Burger King/Tim Hortons value creation opportunity," Mr. Siegner said in a research note. "We look for meaningful cost synergies and potentially some small tax benefits likely at an accelerated pace, and aren't too concerned by management's reluctance to acknowledge either."

He thinks cost synergies, which should total hundreds of millions of dollars over time, will come from cutting administration and distribution costs, while robust levels of free cash flow generation will allow the company to pay down debt and save on interest costs.

"We believe upside exists in: 1) greater-than-expected cost savings synergies; 2) accelerated international Tim Hortons unit expansion; 3) cross-selling possibilities; 4) tax efficiencies; and 5) an optimized capex program. Additional sources of upside are somewhat less clear over the near term, but could include optionality around real estate, distribution system, and the potential elimination of the preferred shares," he said.

He raised his price target to $34 (U.S.) from $30. The analyst consensus price target for Burger King Worldwide over the next year is $31.33 (U.S.), according to Thomson Reuters data.

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Raymond James has reduced its expectations for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.'s gold mining project in Nunavut after a site visit.

The Meliadine mine hasn't drawn much attention since the company's last technical report in 2011, as the market has been focused instead on the Canadian Malartic mine, Raymond James analyst Phil Russo said.

"As its next stand-alone growth project in the pipeline, the asset is likely to garner increasing attention given its projected contribution to the company's production profile long term," Mr. Russo said. "We expect the economics to be marginal for Meliadine, weighed down principally in our view by the $1-billion initial capital and four-year horizon to first gold production."

He lowered his price target on Agnico Eagle's stock to $42 (U.S.) from $44 and maintained an "outperform" rating. The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $40.03 (U.S.).

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Canadian Western Bank continues to post strong loan growth, particularly in real estate project loans, equipment financing, and personal loans and mortgages, notes RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic.

After the regional bank posted its third-quarter results on Wednesday, which were more or less in line with analysts' expectations, Mr. Mihelic raised his target price on the stock to $43 (Canadian) from $40, while maintaining a "sector perform" rating.

"We expect loan growth to be a key differentiator for Canadian Western Bank as loan and revenue growth becomes more challenging for the industry," he said.

The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $42.18.

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Methanex Corp.'s announcement that higher-than-expected gas curtailments would affect production at its methanol facility in Trinidad does not worsen the outlook for the company and the commodity, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen said.

"While yesterday's Trinidad gas news was disappointing, it was only of minor consequence to our estimates and, more importantly, bears no impact on our long-term fundamental view of Methanex and the global methanol markets," Mr. Hansen said.

He reiterated a "strong buy" rating and an $80 (U.S.) price target. "We view any softness in the stock price as an opportunity for investors to add to positions," he said.

The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $73.55 (U.S.).

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In other analyst actions:

TD Securities upgraded Canacol Energy to "action list buy" from "buy" and raised its price target to $12 (Canadian) from $11.50.

TD Securities downgraded Petroamerica Oil to "buy" from "action list buy" with a price target of 60 cents (Canadian).

BMO upgraded Progressive Waste Solutions to "outperform" from "market perform" and raised its price target to $30 (U.S.) from $26.

Haywood Securities initiated coverage on Aveda Transportation and Energy Services with a "sector outperform" rating and $9 (Canadian) price target.

National Bank Financial initiated coverage on Knight Therapeutics with an "outperform" rating and $6.50 (Canadian) price target.

Raymond James downgraded Visa to "market perform" from "outperform". The research firm does not provide a price target on market perform rated stocks.

Sanford Bernstein upgraded Alcatel-Lucent to "Outperform" from "market perform" with a price target of $4.63 (U.S.).

With files from Bloomberg