A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The two areas where we need to worry most about the Americans' dodgy leadership are trade and foreign policy, where the president can act more or less without congressional adult supervision. In the first case, NAFTA talks are coming to a head, and Reuters is reporting that the U.S. delegation is acting as though it would prefer talks to fail,
"The Canadian leader's visit comes amid increasing acrimony over NAFTA renegotiations, with Trump making fresh threats to terminate the 23-year-old agreement and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday accusing Trump's administration of trying to sabotage the talks with 'poison pill proposals.' The NAFTA talks are likely to stall in the face of aggressive U.S. demands to sharply increase content requirements for autos and auto parts, trade experts say."
"NAFTA talks hit contentious phase as Canadian PM fights for trade pact" – Reuters
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In terms of foreign policy, Chinese officials were angered as U.S. Navy warships glided into disputed territory in the south China Sea.
"China complains after U.S. destroyer sails through South China Sea" – Reuters
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I still believe that lithium miners are a trade, not an investment, despite the rosy outlook for electric vehicles. There is no scarcity of lithium, but some degree of an investment bubble will be needed to fund production facilities to bring the element to market. Bloomberg published an excellent overview on Oct. 11,
"Rest assured, Earth has the lithium. The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance] says. But battery makers are going to need more mines to support their production, and they'll have to build them much more quickly than anyone thought… Mining companies have promised to add 20 lithium production sites to the 16 currently operating, but the concern remains that they won't be finished in time to satisfy rising demand. … Mark Cutifani, chief executive officer of mining company Anglo American Plc, sees the opposite problem as more likely. "There are a lot of projects out there, and they'll end up oversupplying the market," he says."
"We're Going to Need More Lithium" – Bloomberg
Related: "@SBarlow_ROB Bernstein on mining investing" – (research excerpt) Twitter
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Today's energy sector links,
"Canadian Oil's High-Priced Run Set to End as Supply Surges" – Bloomberg
"Oil Holds Gains as OPEC Sees Recovery, Storm Curbs U.S. Output" – Bloomberg
"@chris1reuters "Price risks skewed to the upside" #Brent crude #oil to average $56 a barrel in Q1 2018, $5 above prev forecast, says @Barclays #OPEC #OOTT " – (research excerpt) Twitter
"Oil Edges Up Ahead of OPEC Report" – Fox News
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Tweet of the Day: "@SBarlow_ROB For those who like pinless hand grenades, [Morgan Stanley] has trade recs into earnings" – (research excerpt) Twitter
Diversion: "The top 10 concept cars unveiled at Frankfurt Motor Show 2017 " – Wallpaper
Scott Barlow