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The Globe and Mail

A swoon by June? Markets enter weakest part of the 'Presidential Cycle'

In this Jan. 31, 2014 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in the East Room of the White House in Washington.

Carolyn Kaster/AP

Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of S&P Capital IQ. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report's recommendations. For more on The Globe's disclaimers please read here. The following is excerpted from the report:

As we turn the page to a new month and a new quarter, history reminds us that equity price performances have traditionally been weaker than normal during mid-term election years (MTEYs). Price returns during these four-year cycle lows have been atypically negative in January, but then frequently favorable in February. What's more, March also typically posted an gain, just before a string of sub-par performances from April through September, with two-thirds of these months recording average declines.

This year, the S&P 500 has recorded consistent MTEY results. My concern is that without a renewing catalyst, the seasonally vulnerable second and third quarters could prove similarly challenging to equity investors as they have in the past.

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