S&P500 (ES) Weekly/Daily/4hr

The S&P500 (ESH23) is trying to form a weekly Doji after rebounding off near the 2023 low and the 61.8% Fib retrace of the October to February bounce.  Although odds are now moderate for this week’s short covering to spring ES back to the psychologically key 4k whole figure level, ES is less likely to retest the weekly chart downchannel resistance before month end than it is to slide below the November low in the same period.  The slightly higher February high versus the January and December highs appears to have been a bear trap.  Watch for volatility today 830am EST following the US CPI, Wednesday with the US core PPI, retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing index and PPI, and after Friday’s US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment.  The escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict deserves close monitoring.  Congratulations to paying subscribers who benefited from the Oct 18, 2022 analysis highlighting the early stages of a month plus Dead Cat Bounce, or from the February 18, 2020 analysis one day before the record high in the ES, warning of the pending slide in the S&P500.  The somewhat bottomish weekly RSI and Stochastics are being weighed on by the negatively crossing weekly MACD.  I am looking to enter short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for Monday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).  Click here for analysis on VIX, GBPUSD

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