Last-minute shift of support for Hepner as Surrey mayor, poll shows

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The pollsters who predicted a three-way mayoral race in suburban Surrey – B.C.'s second-largest city – say a last-minute shift of support explains mayor-elect Linda Hepner's strong showing in the race.

With 50,782 votes, the Surrey city councillor had more votes than key rivals Doug McCallum (28,010) and Barinder Rasode (21,335) combined. Ms. Hepner's Surrey First party also won all of the eight council seats in the community southeast of Vancouver, which is growing at a rate of about 1,000 people a month.

Earlier in the campaign, Insights West reported Ms. Hepner and Mr. McCallum, a former Surrey mayor, in a dead heat at 33 per cent among decided voters, with Ms. Rasode, a former Surrey First city councillor, at 30 per cent.

But on Monday, Insights public-affairs vice-president Mario Canseco said his company did a poll on voting day and the next day that found 59 per cent of voters surveyed said they made their "final decision" on who to support in the last week of the campaign or on election day.

He said that since Insights did not conduct a survey in the week before the election, "there's no way to factor in how many people are going to be deciding at the end," he said.

The new online survey, conducted Nov. 15 and Nov. 16, suggested 67 per cent of Ms. Hepner's voters settled on her in the last week or on election day compared to 57 per cent for Mr. McCallum and 56 per cent for Ms. Rasode. Of those, 73 per cent were aged 18-34, according to the poll.

The new poll had 361 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Ms. Hepner succeeds Dianne Watts, who has led Surrey for a decade and stepped down to run for the federal Conservatives.

Ms. Rasode said on Monday the election outcome was about who did the best job reaching the undecided. "Surrey First ran a very good campaign in terms of reaching every household at least three times with a direct-mail piece and lots of ads in the local paper," she said.

Ms. Rasode said her campaign tried social media such as Facebook as well as radio. "But there is some effectiveness in the old-fashioned way of local mail and direct advertising."

She also suggested Surrey First had more money. Her campaign has disclosed $193,000 in donations. She recalled Surrey First had about $700,000 in 2011, when she was elected a councillor for the party. Ms. Rasode, who plans to run for council in 2018, said the challenge then will be to raise more money.

Mr. Canseco noted that 28 per cent of voters in general said Ms. Watts's endorsement of Ms. Hepner was the most important issue for them compared with 43 per cent for Surrey First voters.

Ms. Watts oversaw the creation of a new downtown core for the city of about 500,000, including a new city hall and library.

But Mr. Canseco said the future is uncertain.

"Now it's a question of, 'What is Linda Hepner going to be doing in the next few years?' Obviously, she has got a machine. She has got name recognition. People are happy with the way things are going," he said.

"But there's not going to be an opportunity to run a campaign alongside Dianne Watts. You're now essentially running on your record. Maybe she will be even bigger than Ms. Watts was and connecting on a much better level."

But he added opposition may be able to unify to challenge Surrey First.

However, pollster Greg Lyle of the Innovative Research Group said there was never a three-way split in Surrey. "Honestly, it was never even really close," he said.

A poll released Oct. 20 that Mr. Lyle's company conducted for Surrey First found Ms. Hepner with 40 per cent support among decided voters, Mr. McCallum at 33 per cent and Ms. Rasode at 22 per cent. That was based on a telephone poll conducted between Oct. 6 and 12.

Mr. Lyle said his numbers were good even though Surrey First paid for the poll. "I don't cook my numbers for anybody," he said.

"The reality in the race is that people in Surrey are happy with where Surrey has grown over the last nine years. It's bigger than Dianne Watts, but it's very much about Dianne Watts and there was not a big time-for-a-change movement."