New Brunswick Premier David Alward.
Riding into the premier's office on a wave of populist anger over the proposed sale of NB Power, David Alward promised consultation and stability, a relief from the game-changing boldness attempted by the Liberals he replaced.
But Mr. Alward's Progressive Conservative government must now find its own bold vision, tabling a first budget on Tuesday that will show how it plans to tackle the province's crushing financial problems.
"If we don't do something soon we will be hitting the wall," warned Donald Savoie, professor at the Université de Moncton and one of the region's most respected voices on public policy. "I don't think you and I can overstate the importance of the budget. Because if there's no clear plan to address the fiscal situation, we're looking at some major issues down the road."
The province's debt was estimated to reach $9.6-billion when the fiscal year finishes at the end of the month. The deficit has been climbing toward $1-billion and is expected to pass that next year – unless the government undertakes serious action.
"I see an uneventful budget, very carefully done, no big changes or surprises," said Don Desserud, professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick-Saint John. "It'll be seen as competent but a missed opportunity."
He noted that the government, although enjoying a postelection honeymoon period in the polls, may not have as much political capital as it appears. In the election last September, the Tories picked up only 4,000 more votes than in the previous race, even though the Liberal vote dropped by 44,000. And Prof. Desserud pointed out that the Tories have not prepared people for serious austerity.
"The rhetoric here is more about not increasing as opposed to cutting spending," he said. "If they are tough, people are going to be surprised because they haven't set the groundwork."
Finance Minister Blaine Higgs was not available Monday to discuss the scale of the task facing his province. But he has limited space in which to manoeuvre, with the Premier having all but ruled out an increase in the HST.
The challenges are daunting for the have-not province of about 750,000. An aging population is driving up health-care costs, and the economy was hit hard by the recession in the United States. Government revenues were slashed by the previous administration's decision to lower taxes.
Elizabeth Beale, president and CEO of the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council, said it will take more than restraint to get the situation under control. She doesn't believe the province can balance the books within four years, as pledged by the government, unless it's willing to consider politically unpalatable moves such as raising taxes.
"There's all sorts of things you can do but you've got to go to these big measures," she said. "You have to tackle the big items. You can't do this at the margins."
Tom Bateman, chair in political science at St. Thomas University, wonders if politicians will simply find it easier to wait until forced into action by bondholders or other influences outside the province.
"There's a logic just to sort of hang tough, don't do much and let an external crisis prepare the people for what needs to be done," he said.
Oliver Moore