If the NDP continue to poll well, showing leads in four of the last six publicly-released polls, why does the Globe's Election Forecast suggest that the Conservatives have a higher probability of winning the most seats? The important thing to remember is that not all votes are created equal in terms of their ability to convert into seats.
The NDP's strength, like in 2011, remains in Quebec. In the latest Angus Reid poll, the New Democrats are polling at a robust 51 per cent of the vote. Yet, in 2011, they turned 43 per cent of the province's vote into winning 59 of the 75 seats. If we accept the Angus Reid number, increasing their vote share by 8 per cent around the province doesn't leave them with much room to grow seat-wise: a seat is a seat, won by 1 vote or 20,000.
At the same time, the Conservatives also remain reasonably strong in Ontario. While certainly down from their 44 per cent vote share in 2011, they remain marginally in the lead in the province in a number of recent polls. In the latest Angus Reid survey, the Conservatives polled 35 per cent to the NDP's 33 and in the Nanos poll released a day earlier, the Conservatives led the Liberals 39 per cent to 32.
History reminds us that this has happened before. In 1979, the Pierre Trudeau-led Liberals won 40 per cent of the vote, compared to the Joe Clark-led PCs' 36 per cent share. Despite this, the Conservatives won 22 more seats than the Liberals and formed a brief-lived minority government. One reason the Liberals were able to win a larger share of the vote despite losing the seat count was the result in Quebec, where the Liberals won an astounding 61 per cent of the vote, capturing 67 of the province's 75 seats.
Paul Fairie is a University of Calgary political scientist who studies voter behaviour, who designed The Globe's Election Forecast.