The view from an Ontario Tory stronghold

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It seemed a simple enough idea.

Find an impenetrable, unshakeable riding, one where not even the leader showing up for the debate with the fingers of one hand crossed behind the back and the other hand in the till could rattle the loyal locals enough to choose otherwise.

A place like Simcoe-Grey, where nothing, absolutely nothing beyond the riding borders – Georgian Bay to one side, the outskirts of Barrie on the other – can stop these rolling hills and farmland and small towns from staying Tory blue.

Just look at the large map of the polling stations in MPP Jim Wilson's campaign office. Go ahead, find another colour – if you can.

Mr. Wilson is fighting – many would say that's hardly the right word – his seventh election. He has held the riding, previously known by other names, since 1990. He's a young punk compared to Wally Downer, who won 10 elections for the Conservative Party between 1937 and 1975, but in total years Mr. Wilson has caught his predecessor George McCague, who held the seat a mere 15 years before passing it on to the young man who had once been his assistant.

Tories tend to win big around here, by upwards of 20,000 votes.

So confident, apparently, is Mr. Wilson about his seventh straight win that he doesn't care to talk about it. A visit to his office and a telephone request with his media person produces … nothing. Not even a return call to say sorry, not interested.

One former Liberal opponent, Mark Redmond, told a Simcoe County website that he considers the incumbent a "recluse." A fervent PC supporter in the streets likens the sitting member, whom this man does volunteer work for and will vote for on June 12, to a "hibernating bear."

Both Mr. Redmond and current Liberal candidate Lorne Kenney concede that generation upon generation of Tory victories has created an impressive constituency presence. The machine is well-oiled. They know Mr. Wilson can point to his record at Queen's Park – minister of health and minister of energy, science and technology in the Mike Harris government, minister of northern development and mines and minister of environment under Ernie Eves, currently PC house leader – but those who would challenge Jim Wilson feel they are far more up against a "culture" than any record when it comes to dislodging a Tory, any Tory, in Simcoe-Grey.

Mr. Kenney's response, not surprisingly, to an interview request is "in a heartbeat."

The 68-year-old Liberal candidate has more energy than the "divisive" wind turbines that are a contentious issue in any rural riding. After a master's degree in economics, Mr. Kenney became a union rep, an NDP stalwart, a teacher, a federal public servant and a provincial public servant before deciding to run in the riding in which he was born and where his family goes back four generations. He is fully aware what he is up against.

"I would never call this riding 'a lock,'" says Mr. Kenney.

The Liberal candidate counts his blessings: a growing sense in the province that Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak isn't very … well … smart; empirical evidence that Lorne Kenney lawn signs are to be found almost as often as Jim Wilson signs; the sense of entitlement he sees in the incumbent's campaign; and positive feelings he says he is finding toward Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne.

He admits that "gas plants are two words that have occurred" as he goes door to door. He maintains, however, that Ms. Wynne cannot be personally held responsible for the billion-dollar spending scandal.

"Say what they will about the fact that she was a cabinet member in Dalton McGuinty's cabinet," he says, "the Liberal Party of Ontario is under new management. If it makes you feel good to take something out on people who aren't there anymore, I guess you've got to do it. But I wouldn't be here doing what I'm doing if McGuinty were the premier. I am here doing what I'm doing because she is the premier."

Mr. Kenney believes, as any serious candidate must, that he does have a legitimate chance. More volunteers have signed up. Contributors are coming into his campaign office with cheques. The sputtering of the NDP provincially has led the Liberal campaign strategists to divert more resources to ridings that are "prospects" – and he says that is exactly what Simcoe-Grey has become.

"Until the day comes when one party is composed entirely of saints and the other party entirely of sinners," he says, "you're going to have to make a choice."

And here, he says, lies opportunity. Disenchanted as voters throughout Ontario might be, those who will vote and have not yet made up their minds could become a significant factor.

"The huge undecided factor convinces me that the riding is in play and will be a race to the end," says Mr. Kenney. "Even the most die-hard Liberal in this riding in elections past might have said, 'The jig is up and let's just wait the inevitable.' But not this time. This time it's 'game on' until the big poll – the one that counts."