Liberal candidate Yvonne Jones is seen at a campaign event in Happy Valley-Goose Bay on April 24, 2013.Jenny McCarthy/The Canadian Press
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Peter Penashue's defeat in the Labrador by-election marked a confluence of politics and policy. Both combined to end, at least for now, his political career.
Mr. Penashue resigned from cabinet and his seat when it became clear that his campaign had received tens of thousands of dollars in improper donations during the 2011 election. Since he won the riding by all of 79 votes, those ill-gotten gains could have influenced the outcome. He did the right thing by taking the matter back to the voters for their decision.
But he couldn't have picked a worse time. The election overspending in Labrador became a thread in a skein of controversies surrounding the Conservatives that involved fraudulent robo-calls in Guelph, and possibly elsewhere, a court challenge over wrongly-cast ballots and much else.
In that sense, Labrador was a referendum on whether voters believed the Harper government's claims that it fought the election fair and square, despite the odd, unintended blemish. The results of that referendum – 51 per cent of the vote for Liberal challenger Yvonne Jones, to 29 per cent for Mr. Penashue and 20 per cent for the NDP's Harry Borlase – suggests that, for the voters of Labrador, at least, the verdict is guilty as charged.
That's the politics part of Monday's result. But policy might also have had something to do with it – specifically, the government's moves to tighten eligibility for Employment Insurance.
Last year's budget contained changes aimed at moving EI a bit closer to its original intent – temporary assistance for workers who unexpectedly lose their job. Currently, the program also operates as a form of more-or-less permanent income assistance for seasonal workers, who make up a significant part of the Atlantic economy.
Under the new rules, workers who frequently claim benefits may be required to take work within an hour's commute from where they live at as little as 70 per cent of their regular working wage. The move has been condemned by all four Atlantic Canadian premiers, who maintain that seasonal industries such as forestry, fishing and tourism could be crippled without federal supports for workers during the off-season.
When the Chrétien government introduced similar reforms in the 1990s, the Liberals received such a shellacking in Atlantic Canada at the next election that Mr. Chrétien ordered the changes reversed.
The Conservatives are unlikely to mimic the Liberal climb-down. First, it's not in Stephen Harper's nature to back down. Second, the Conservatives have little to lose in Atlantic Canada. With Monday's by-election defeat, they are now shut out of Newfoundland and Labrador. They hold one of four seats in Prince Edward Island and four of 11 seats in Nova Scotia.
The party is strong in New Brunswick, with eight of 10 seats. But a region-wide loss of, say, 10 seats in the next election would be survivable, given that 27 of the 30 seats to be added to the House of Commons in 2015 are in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia ridings where the Tories are either favoured to win or at least competitive.
That doesn't mean the Conservatives should shrug off major losses in Atlantic Canada. But they must have known when they put the EI reforms forward that they would pay a political price. The by-election loss in Labrador is, in that sense, a down payment on what's to come.
The Conservatives claimed, as governing parties always do, that governing parties seldom fare well in by-elections. "As we know, majority governments do not usually win by-elections," party spokesman Fred DeLorey e-mailed, with commendable predictability.
And Labrador, a relatively remote constituency with the smallest population of any riding in Canada, can hardly be seen as a national template.
But Conservative strategists would be wise to consider two questions answered:
- Have the controversies over the 2011 election hurt the party? Yes.
- Will the EI reforms cost us seats in Atlantic Canada? Yes.
Any other conclusions would be dangerously wishful thinking.
John Ibbitson is the chief political writer in the Ottawa bureau.