As Toronto awaits billions in transit money, TTC sees softening ridership

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With the federal government offering new money for transit, funding that is weighted towards big cities, this was one of the best weeks for Toronto residents in years. But a cloud hung over the celebrations, amid warnings that softening ridership figures could put a whole slate of ambitious plans at risk unless political pressure is maintained.

Tuesday's budget included $3.4-billion for public transit across Canada over the next three years, a large share of it destined for Toronto, with the promise of more to come.

"The good news in the budget is there's finally a recognition that the federal government has a role to play in funding transit in cities – namely the TTC in Toronto – beyond capital projects and expansion projects," Toronto Transit Commission chair Josh Colle said. "The second piece that goes hand in hand with that is … a recognition that that money should [be] doled out based on ridership, not on population."

The federal money is in addition to $16-billion Ontario has pledged to spend on transit in Toronto and surrounding communities over 10 years. Also in play are billions in transit plans being hammered out by city staff.

If this all comes to pass it could mean the biggest improvement in local transit in decades. But also this week came a reminder of why long-term transit plans can have a hard time getting off the ground.

A TTC report showed softening ridership in 2015 is continuing, with 10 of the past 14 full months showing counts lower than in the same period of the preceding year. The report noted that other transit agencies across the region are also showing lagging numbers, and the TTC said it was considering a range of measures. Among them: "expense reductions that would be achieved from across-the-board service reductions in 2016 and 2017."

On Wednesday, after a monthly meeting of the TTC board, chief executive Andy Byford suggested that the commission wouldn't do anything more extreme than deferring service improvements. He also said that the early ridership numbers for March were more promising. But alarm bells were already going off.

"One of the issues in transit generally … is whether you try to lead ridership or follow it," said transit blogger Steve Munro. "The moment you take the attitude that a downturn means you immediately start freezing and cutting … you're never going to get out of that hole."

Politicians insist they won't allow long-term plans to fall victim to what could yet prove a short-term drop in ridership.

"To me, all of this says nothing other than that we should continue to build out the transit system to make it better, make it more reliable, make it more convenient, make it something that people want to use more," said Toronto Mayor John Tory.

"If we believed the population of the city was going to decline, or if we believed that the city itself was going to go into decline, somehow, economically … I would suggest it would still be irresponsible to sort of take a pessimistic view like that and say, 'Well, let's build no transit.' "

At the provincial level, Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca said his government's commitment to transit was unwavering. He noted that the millennial generation has been showing less interest in driving than their elders, suggesting a sizable future cohort of riders. And he said that he has little doubt there is "huge demand" for improved transit.

"Every single time I have a conversation with commuters in my community, they are very impatient for us to make sure that we continue to increase the service that we have on the Barrie line. I know that the same thing happens in all of the other communities that are served by the other six corridors on GO [Transit]," said the Vaughan MPP.

But people who remember the way the TTC went into a holding pattern after a ridership slump in the 1990s remain concerned.

"In the [Greater Toronto and Hamilton area], we have a history of putting off things that are required, given even half an excuse," said Cameron MacLeod, executive director of the advocacy group CodeRedTO.

"Toronto is going to hit the gas again … and it's going to be hugely problematic if, eight years from now, 10 years from now, we've done nothing and there's huge, disastrous levels, ridership capacity problems throughout the network."

Councillor Shelley Carroll, who sits on the transit agency's board, also warned that weakening ridership makes it easier for other levels of government to look away.

"You want to say to government that you have constant demand and the demand is outstripping your system, so we've got to invest in it and expand it," she said, one day after the board supported her call for a strategy that identifies specific investments that would spur ridership.

"We want to plan, so if Mayor Tory said, 'I want to spend $10-million on transit this year,' we would know the next thing for him to do. It's right here, it's the next step in the [growth strategy]."