Independence sentiment fading as Catalans set to vote in election

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Spain's crisis over the future of Catalonia will take another turn on Thursday, when Catalans vote in a bizarre election that has seen some of the leading candidates campaigning from jail or exile.

The regional election is being held under a cloud of controversy and amid tight control by the Spanish central government, which imposed a form of direct rule over Catalonia in October after a chaotic referendum on independence.

Polls show the results are too close to call and with seven parties contesting seats, it could be weeks before the shape of the government is known. But there are indications the independence movement is waning as the region's economy slows and thousands of companies pull out. And the real star of the campaign hasn't been a sovereigntist but a 36-year-old lawyer, Ines Arrimadas, who has become the leading pro-union voice for Catalonia to remain part of Spain and who could emerge as the region's next president.

Catalonia's election day: A guide to what's at stake and the Spanish crisis so far

There is a lot riding on the outcome, especially for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. He has taken a hard line on the separatist movement, jailing sovereigntist leaders and suspending the regional parliament after it declared independence in October. He also drew international scorn for sending riot police into Catalonia to stop people from voting in the Oct. 1 referendum by seizing ballot boxes and beating some voters.

The Catalan government said 90 per cent of voters backed independence, but only 42 per cent of those eligible voted and Mr. Rajoy declared the referendum illegal. He has defended his actions, saying they were necessary to protect the constitution and the rule of law. And so far, he has won the backing of the European Union.

Mr. Rajoy ordered the vote in the hope that unionist parties would win, allowing him to drop emergency measures that put the region under the direct control of Madrid.

"These elections will decide whether we return to normality, to the constitution, to reason," he told a rally of his People's Party this week. But the campaign has been marred by the surreal image of leading candidates campaigning from jail or exile, including former president Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium in October after being charged with sedition for organizing the referendum. A total of 18 candidates are in jail or exile and it isn't clear how they can take their seats if elected.

Polls show the most likely outcome of the election will be a one-seat majority in parliament for the three main pro-independence parties. But that's far from certain and the polls also indicate that those parties are likely to win less than 50 per cent of the popular vote, putting a dent in sovereigntist arguments that a majority of the population wants to separate.

The independence movement has been stalled by several factors. One of the main reasons is the growing uncertainty about the Catalan economy, which is feeling the impact of the political instability. Economic growth has slowed markedly in Catalonia since October, compared with the rest of Spain, and more than 3,000 businesses have moved their head offices out of the region. The all-important tourism sector has been particularly hit with visits by tourists falling nearly 5 per cent in October compared with a year ago, while they increased by 2 per cent over all in Spain.

The two main independence parties have also turned on each other and sent confusing signals since the referendum. Mr. Puigdemont and his former vice-president, Oriol Junqueras, who is in jail on sedition charges, lead parties that used to be in a coalition together. They are now at loggerheads and each leader appears to be softening his position on independence, preferring to push for more power from Madrid instead of outright independence.

The big winner so far appears to be Ms. Arrimadas who heads a relatively new centre-right party called Citizens. It has emerged as the main unionist alternative and polls show the party's popular support at around 23 per cent, higher than any other party. Citizens could win up to 33 seats, up from 25 in the past election, putting it in a position to potentially form a government with Ms. Arrimadas as president.

She's an intriguing candidate. Born in southern Spain, she moved to Catalonia a decade ago and is married to a sovereigntist politician. She's been a passionate advocate against separation, labelling the referendum as a "coup against democracy" and saying she's more in tune with all Catalans, including those who moved to the region seeking a better life.

If Ms. Arrimadas's party wins power, it would be "a huge victory for them," said Antonio Barroso, who specializes in Spain at Teneo Intelligence, a London-based consultancy. He added that it would set up a potential threat to Mr. Rajoy since Citizens draws many of the same voters as PP. But Mr. Barroso expects the result to lead to more uncertainty.

"You will have a situation in which you have mobilized part of the population that will continue to sort of push for independence and you might have tensions with the central government, but nothing is going to be solved within the next 12 months," he said.

Germa Bel, a former member of parliament in the pro-independence coalition, also doubted the independence bloc will make large inroads. "I don't expect that on Dec. 22 that independence will be declared again," he said.