Protests in Burundi sap President’s power

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Burundi's embattled president is offering new concessions to the thousands of protesters who have paralyzed his capital city for almost two weeks, but there are mounting signs that his power is dwindling as the violent clashes intensify.

President Pierre Nkurunziza, whose bid for a third term has sparked an escalating crisis in one of Africa's most volatile regions, went on national television on Wednesday night with a conciliatory new message to his opponents, offering to release prisoners and retire at the end of a third term if the demonstrations end. But the protesters immediately rejected the offer.

The President's weakness could be glimpsed at a neighbourhood school in Bujumbura, where protesters swiftly killed a government attempt to hold exams on Thursday. Teachers sat around forlornly in the empty school after hundreds of protesters had chased away the students, throwing stones at the walls and roof to ensure that the exams could not be held.

Just a few hours earlier, Mr. Nkurunziza had declared that the national exams "must take place as scheduled," and he deployed police and soldiers to the schools to enforce his edict. Yet the tactic failed. "It's sad," said one teacher at the school, Emmanuella Nzoyihaya.

"I was worried about the children," she said. "And I was worried that the protesters would think I was pro-government. I'm neutral, I'm just doing my job."

In the latest wave of violence, two protesters were shot dead by police, another was killed by a grenade and a man was burned to death by a mob of protesters who suspected him of spying for the ruling party's youth militia, known as the Imbonerakure.

At least 17 people have been killed and more than 200 injured since the protests erupted on April 26 after Mr. Nkurunziza announced his election bid, in defiance of most interpretations of the constitution and the Arusha agreement that ended Burundi's long civil war. Nearly 40,000 people have fled the country in recent weeks.

The uncompromising mood of the protesters can be seen in the rising number of attacks on suspected youth-militia members this week, and also in the wooden Kalashnikovs that their leaders often carry in the daily street demonstrations these days – a symbol of militancy and a potential spark for bloodshed if police mistake the toy weapons for real ones.

In another major blow to the President's chances of political survival, the African Union called for the postponement of Burundi's election and announced it won't send election observers to the country this month, stripping the elections of any remaining legitimacy they might have had.

"Until there is peace in Burundi, there is no way we can go there for elections," said Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, chairwoman of the AU commission, in an interview with Chinese television channel CCTV.

"As things stand, I don't even see how elections can take place under these conditions," she said. "We were planning to send long-term observers, but we can't now. The environment is not conducive for an election."

Perhaps more significantly, she also questioned the legality of Mr. Nkurunziza's bid for a third term. His bid has been approved by Burundi's constitutional court, but one of the court's leading judges has fled the country and alleged that the judges were under heavy pressure to approve the presidential plan. Other critics, from Burundian civil-society groups to the U.S. and British governments, have questioned the legality of the third-term bid.

"Other than the Burundi court, all interpretation that we get … is that the constitution is clear, and the Arusha (agreement), and … there shouldn't be a third term," the AU chairwoman said.

Yolande Bouka, a Burundi specialist at the Nairobi office of the Institute for Security Studies, said the stark warning by the AU leader was "quite significant" because the African Union is normally cautious about expressing views on domestic issues. The ruling party will "definitely have to re-evaluate its options" if the AU refuses to send election observers, she said.

The conciliatory speech this week by Mr. Nkurunziza showed that he is under "a tremendous amount of pressure to open the political space," Ms. Bouka said.

Gertrude Kazoviyo, a political analyst at the University of Burundi, noted that the President's speech referred to "protesters" rather than calling them "terrorists" or "insurrectionists" as his government has done in the past. The President is realizing that the tactic of forceful repression "has its limits," she said. "Even the police are hesitating, because this is not a situation of war."

But the vigilante justice on the streets shows that the conflict could spin out of control, she said. "It's going to be difficult to reconcile the two sides after this. We could have another young generation growing up with hatred and violence in its hearts."