Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, second from right in foreground, arrives at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Oct. 24, 2017.TASNEEM ALSULTAN/The New York Times
Saudi Arabia is more aggressively confronting its rival Iran on multiple fronts. It's a policy that risks sharpening several conflicts in the Middle East, even though so far it has failed to score any successes in stemming Tehran's influence.
The bolder steps are largely seen as the work of the son of King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has consolidated his power. Under his leadership, the kingdom has shown a readiness to shake up the region, launching a military campaign in Yemen against rebels it sees as Iranian proxies and sparking a confrontation with Qatar in part over ties with Tehran.
Still, Iran has been able to use wars in Iraq and Syria to build a bridge of alliances stretching from its border to the Mediterranean. The question is whether the Saudis will push even harder against Iran – and what will happen if they do. So far, the kingdom's policies appear to have the full support of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The U.S. State Department said on Tuesday it was urging Saudi Arabia to be "fair and transparent" in its handling of any prosecutions stemming from Prince Mohammed's corruption probe that has resulted in the arrests of dozens of top Saudi officials.
State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the United States had no advance knowledge of the crackdown over the weekend. "We continue to encourage Saudi authorities to pursue the prosecution of people they believe to have been corrupt officials; we expect them to do it in a fair and transparent manner," Ms. Nauert told a briefing.
The past weekend saw dramatic developments connected to the kingdom that intensified regional tensions.
Yemeni rebels fired a missile targeting the international airport in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of supplying the missile, saying that could be "considered an act of war." The missile was intercepted by air defences, but it was the deepest rebel strike in Saudi territory since the Yemen war began in 2015.
Saudi Arabia seems to have acted to wreck Lebanon's government that includes Iran's powerful ally, Hezbollah. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a Saudi ally, announced his surprise resignation in Riyadh, believed to be at the Saudis' prompting.
Crown Prince Mohammed appeared to strengthen his power at home. There were a series of arrests of princes and senior figures in what was billed as a crackdown on corruption but was widely seen as a purge of potential rivals and critics.
Here's how Saudi policies are affecting different countries of the Middle East.
Direct confrontation with Iran?
Although Saudi Arabia said it reserved the right to respond over the Yemeni missile, it is unlikely to take direct military action against Iran.
The kingdom's military is already tied down in the Yemen war, with its warplanes leading the air campaign there and troops on the border. Iran's military is larger and more battle-hardened than Saudi Arabia's, but the kingdom has far more advanced weaponry bought from the United States and Europe in the past decade. It has a strong ally in the United Arab Emirates, which also has built a large military.
Direct military action would risk huge destabilization in the Gulf and beyond, disrupting oil shipments vital to Saudi Arabia and its allies. The kingdom is unlikely to act without a green light from Washington, where the policy has been to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.
That leaves them squaring off in proxy battles for power in the region.
Yemen
In 2015, a coalition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other allies began a campaign against the Shia rebels known as Houthis, who they say are tools of Iran.
This prevented the Houthis and their allies from overrunning Yemen and preserved a hold in the south. But the coalition has been unable to push the rebels farther back, leaving them in control of the capital, Sana'a, and much of the north.
The war has killed more than 10,000 civilians and pushed millions of Yemenis to the brink of famine. It also has drained Saudi resources at a time of already lower oil prices. Saudi troops have largely stayed out, relying instead on air strikes.
The Houthis' missile launch increased tensions, and Saudi Arabia responded by intensifying its blockade of Yemen, raising fears an already dire humanitarian situation will get worse.
A Houthi-linked army spokesman said the rebels will continue to target Saudi airports and also threatened to hit the UAE. That seems unlikely, since Dubai is one of Iran's top trading partners and home to a significant number of Iranians and Iranian businesses.
Lebanon
Mr. Hariri's resignation was widely seen as a Saudi move against Hezbollah, the Shia political group and guerrilla force that is Iran's powerful arm in Lebanon and Syria.
In doing so, the Saudis demonstrated an ability to sabotage Lebanese politics, wrecking the compromise government led by Mr. Hariri that the kingdom saw as too close to Iran.
But it's difficult to see what Saudi Arabia gained otherwise.
Hezbollah still dominates Lebanon, and nothing will shake that any time soon. No Sunni militia or political group has the same clout, and few Sunnis want to risk a destabilizing fight with Hezbollah. The country will probably be stuck without an effective government – or a weak, provisional one.
The fear is that Saudi Arabia will push the situation further somehow to try to set back Hezbollah. That could potentially destabilize Lebanon, which saw bloody clashes between the guerrilla force and Sunni rivals in the mid-2000s.
Syria
After six years of war in Syria, Iran and its ally President Bashar al-Assad are prevailing over mainly Sunni rebels, many of them backed by Saudi Arabia.
Iran has intensified its influence in Syria, with its own forces and fighters from Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias battling alongside Mr. al-Assad's troops. Iran's
With a file from Reuters