U.S. Republican presidential candidate Texas Governor Rick Perry greets supporters at the Republicans of Black Hawk County Dinner in Waterloo, Iowa, August 14, 2011.JIM YOUNG/REUTERS
Perry tops the polls, while Bachmann drops
Despite winning the non-binding Iowa Straw poll vote, Michele Bachmann isn't translating nationally just yet. According to a CNN/ORC International poll, 15 per cent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP pick Texas Governor Rick Perry as their first choice for their party's nomination, just two points behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who's making his second bid for the White House. Mr. Romney's two-point margin over Mr. Perry is within the survey's sampling error. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, and Texas Representative Ron Paul, who is making his third bid for the White House, are at 12 per cent apiece and Ms. Bachmann has 7 per cent.
Perry's run could help Mitt Romney
One danger for the Republican right is that Ms. Bachmann and Mr. Perry could split the evangelical vote, allowing Mr. Romney to win Iowa. Mr. Romney, though right of centre, is detested by the Tea Party movement and seen as a flip-flopper. He is regarded as inconsistent on social issues, and, for some on the Christian right, another negative is that he is a Mormon.
While road-tested in Texas, the country hasn't seem a lot of him yet
While his administration has been hailed for its job creation and booming economy, its economic record is uneven. The state still has unemployment higher than 8 per cent, and many of the new jobs pay the minimum wage. Meanwhile, the state's per student education expenditure is near the bottom in the nation. Critics say Perry has slashed education and social service spending in a way that is unhealthy for a prosperous state – and would not be acceptable in many parts of the U.S. An additional question is how he will rate with moderate suburban independents – the critical swing vote in a general election.
He sounds like George W. Bush, but he's not the same thing
Ironically, one of the first challenges he may face is Texan governor fatigue. But in 2007 a YouTube video depicted Mr. Perry speaking dismissively of his predecessor at a Republican house party in Iowa for former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani. In the video, Mr. Perry said, "George Bush was never a fiscal conservative – never was," adding, "I mean, '95, '97, '99, George Bush was spending money."
He's pretty mainstream conservative
There's no mistaking it – Mr. Perry is a strong conservative. He's more pro-growth, anti-abortion-rights and pro-gun measures than most governors. But it's a mistake to say that he takes his talking points from a Rush Limbaugh. If anything, he could be more akin to megachurch mover and shaker Rick Warren. "He knows how to talk like an evangelical," said Richard Land, director of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, and another honorary co-chair of the prayer day. "His heart is in the right place. On most [cultural conservative]issues he's had a good record as governor. He will appeal to evangelicals."
He has never lost an election
Not even an elementary school contest for "king" of the Paint Creek School Carnival. He secured that win by handing out pennies for votes.
Sources: CNN, The Guardian, Politico.com, New York Times, The Hill, National Review Online, Texas Cable News