It's been a rough couple of weeks for Nelson Mandela's political heirs: the ruling African National Congress and its leader, President Jacob Zuma.
The public mourning for Mr. Mandela should have been a golden chance for Mr. Zuma to hitch his wagon to the anti-apartheid hero and boost his popular support in Africa's richest country. He tried that tactic, but it backfired badly. In a stunning blow to his authority, Mr. Zuma was jeered relentlessly by a huge crowd at the official Mandela memorial last week.
The voter discontent here has become increasingly obvious. In Pretoria and Qunu, thousands of mourners were unable to pay their respects to Mr. Mandela because of poor organization and other restrictions, and many of them angrily blamed Mr. Zuma's government. The president is embroiled in a mounting scandal over his use of taxpayer money to build a swimming pool and expand his palatial village home. And he has become the target of voter outrage for imposing a costly new system of electronic highway tolls – a painful burden for many working-class commuters.
A poll this week by a leading South African newspaper found that a remarkable 51 per cent of ANC members want their leader to step down. The union of metalworkers, one of Mr. Zuma's biggest trade-union allies, publicly abandoned him this week and demanded his resignation, while ex-president Thabo Mbeki has also been increasingly critical of his successor, hinting that he should go. Other former Zuma allies – including youth-league firebrand Julius Malema and union federation leader Zwelinzima Vavi – have also swung against him.
Yet despite all this, the ANC is virtually certain to win a strong majority in the next election in May or June of next year, perhaps even topping 60 per cent, which might be only a few percentage points less than its victory margin in the last election.
It seems like a mystifying paradox, but the Teflon-like survival of the ANC president reveals something important about the new South Africa that Mr. Mandela created: it's a country where the ANC is still seen as the liberator of the people, despite widespread cynicism over the corruption and incompetence of many of its current leaders. And as long as Mr. Zuma continues to head the ANC, he will be swept back into a re-election victory next year.
The clues to the ANC's hegemony are contained in a fascinating new study of South African public opinion, based on 27 moderated focus groups from June to October of this year, covering all racial and income groups. The comments in the focus groups were analyzed by political scientist Susan Booysen, in a study published by Freedom House.
"While there is strong disappointment with the government and its leaders, South Africans retain their faith in the democratic system and do not transfer their discontent to the ANC," the study concluded. "To justify this support, citizens displace blame for the barrage of wrongdoings that they themselves cite. Even as they find reasons to support the ANC, they condemn the government."
The study quotes one young man who compared the ANC to a car smashed in an accident. Instead of replacing it, he said, you should just keep it and repair it.
In the focus groups, the ANC won credit for the improvements in housing, education, health and other basic services since the end of apartheid in 1994. It also won credit for South Africa's racial transformation. "The ANC is seen as the movement that delivered the country from apartheid," the study said. "It has created a monopoly over associations with liberation."
South Africans aren't naïve. They see the corruption and greed of many ANC leaders, and they see the jobs and business contracts that are funneled to those with ANC connections. Yet they display "immense patience," the study found. People in the focus groups used phrases like "Rome was not built in a day."
One man in an impoverished township said: "In my heart, I hope that one day the government will sober up and see the difference between those who are rich and those who are poor."
The other key advantage that protects Mr. Zuma is the party's incredible system of national and local organization, and its reach into almost every community in the country. Focused like a laser on its election strategy, the ANC did not hesitate to use the Mandela memorials for its own political benefit. The memorials should have been neutral state events, yet the ANC ensured that its politicians were showcased at every event, as the masters of ceremony and as featured speakers.
Critics of the ANC, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Desmond Tutu, were ruthlessly squeezed off the stage (aside from a brief appearance by Mr. Tutu at the very end of the main memorial, when almost the entire crowd had gone). Instead the official memorial gave central speaking roles to the ANC's new economic partners – the BRICS nations, including China and India – despite their lack of any historic connection to Mr. Mandela. After all, their economic support will be crucial to the ANC's political future.
If he can keep the ANC's vote above 60 per cent in the election next year, Mr. Zuma will probably keep his job as the ANC leader. But if its vote falls much below 60 per cent, he might be replaced after the election.
If that happens, the next president of South Africa is likely to be the ANC's current deputy president: the wealthy businessman and former union leader Cyril Ramaphosa, who has been an impressively eloquent and calming influence at the Mandela events this month. His arrival as party leader could give the ANC another decade or more in power.
Geoffrey York