Is Canada ready for Angry America? That is the message that is coming out of the primary season in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, and we should be concerned. Americans are not only sick and tired of Washington's disconnected political class, they are also tired of being the world's policeman and of friends who they think are taking them for a ride, especially on trade and immigration. U.S. voters are in an angry mood and we are in for a rough ride, whoever wins the White House. If current primary voting trends are any indication, a presidential playoff between "the Donald" (Trump) and Hillary (Clinton) is all but assured.
Either candidate, if successful, could pose some daunting challenges, especially on international trade and volatile global issues. Both have clearly struck a nerve of dissatisfaction over prevailing political trends in the United States. Ultimately, Canada, along with other U.S. allies and neighbours, will be obliged to adapt prudently in order to articulate and defend our interests. The emphasis should be on the mutually beneficial nature of our economic, environmental and security interests and objectives. We need to recognize, too, that the underpinning fibre and value of our relationship depends heavily on the extensive network of personal and private-sector links that transcend those between governments and their leaders.
That being said, personal chemistry at the top is vital to the health of the relationship. We saw this in the past, especially during the Mulroney era, when relations were at an all-time high and much was achieved, such as the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement (followed by NAFTA) and the acid-rain accord.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's state visit to Washington this week comes at an inauspicious moment in the U.S. political cycle. It is essentially symbolic, a bit late, perhaps, given our relationship, but a welcome gesture. Given the breadth and depth of our relations with the U.S., top level meetings – symbolic or otherwise – can be used to advance the interests of both countries.
Bilateral trade is the hardy perennial for Canada in most high-level meetings with the U.S., and 2016 is no exception. The prospect for renewal of the softwood lumber agreement is probably the most contentious at the moment but, at any given time, there are several items of friction. Another managed trade solution on lumber would run counter to the spirit of NAFTA but, given the record to date, is probably the best of the worst outcomes.
While there is certainly the need for some pragmatic fence-mending on energy following President Barack Obama's veto of the Keystone XL pipeline, no clear solutions are in sight. Increased production from the Marcellus and Utica shale basins pose a threat to traditional markets for Western Canadian gas both in Canada and the U.S., which is one reason why LNG projects in Canada urgently merit more forthright government support.
Clean energy is an area for common ground if not a topic for substantive, bilateral progress. Given the U.S. Supreme Court decision blocking EPA directives on coal, the President may be hard-pressed to explain how the U.S. intends to fulfill the aspirations agreed to in Paris.
The Americans may be concerned about Canada's stated intent to negotiate free trade with China. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is not likely to loom large in discussions given that the President's ability to gain Congressional approval seems highly remote. But there will likely be an exchange on this issue.
The U.S. has accepted – at least publicly – Canada's modified role against the Islamic State. If the Trudeau government is also ready to alter its campaign position and consider purchasing F-35 fighter jets, that may help the tone and tenor of broader security discussions.
The Arctic is an area where, despite some conflicting legal claims, Canada and the U.S. have shared interests and, in light of increasing Russian and Chinese activity in the region, shared concerns as well. A constructive dialogue about our northern neighbourhood would be wise.
This is the last lap of Mr. Obama's term, but it would be timely to start thinking of what may come in 2017, and look strategically for ways to expand our global footprint.