People sell grain at Dawanau International Market in Kano, Nigeria, on July 14. Nigeria introduced programs before and during Russia's war in Ukraine to make Africa's largest economy self-reliant in wheat production. But climate fallout and insecurity in the northern part of the country where grains are largely grown has hindered the effort.Sunday Alamba/The Associated Press
Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
During wartime, as one’s familiar surroundings are inevitably altered, there are many things that can make one sad.
As a temporary resident of the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa, one of the things I miss most is the sight of enormous bulk carrier ships on the horizon. During my daily walks along the coastline, I’d count how many were lined up to enter the port, and then watch as they filled their cavernous hulls with wheat, barley, corn or sunflower oil before sailing off to distant world markets. On good days, I counted as many as half a dozen ships.
But the numbers started to dwindle several weeks ago, and I’m not alone in noticing. Local friends had told me the noise from the port brought comfort because it represented normalcy. Now I can understand what they meant. Imagine all the ships in English Bay off Vancouver suddenly disappearing: The effect is eerie.
After months of reluctant participation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has pulled out of the United Nations-brokered wartime agreement to partially lift a blockade of the Black Sea and allow ships in and out of Ukrainian ports, and the sea traffic has come to a standstill. The last commercial ship to set sail from Odesa departed on July 16.
Since it was implemented last year, the Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed for almost 33 million metric tonnes of commodities to be exported – with well over half going to poorer countries such as Egypt, Bangladesh, Libya, Yemen and Iraq. In 2023, the World Food Programme received about 80 per cent of its grain from Ukraine.
What we didn’t expect was that Mr. Putin would target port infrastructure here in Odesa and farther southwest along the Danube River, where grain exports were moved to evade Russian blockades and to avoid being targeted. With a bumper harvest and an economy hobbled by sanctions, it appeared to be a tactic to remove Ukraine as a reliable food exporter and increase the world’s reliance on Russia. That is now hurting enemies and allies alike, indicating a new level of desperation, and exposing him as the cornered rodent that he is.
In the end, it may be pressure from Russia’s friends in Africa that nudges Mr. Putin back into the grain deal. African leaders have made clear that they are tiring of Moscow’s weaponization of food and territorial adventurism. No surprise there: Many of the people the WFP was feeding with Ukrainian grain “were already hanging by a thread,” spokesperson Steve Taravella said.
At the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg last month, only 20 African countries were represented, fewer than half of the 43 that attended in 2019; big players such as Kenya were notably absent. Mr. Putin’s offer of 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes of grain to six countries was a joke considering these countries normally require much more. Mr. Putin’s only remaining tactic is to bully all those who stand in his way.
Rama Yade, a former French secretary of foreign affairs and human rights who is now senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre, says that the African continent appears to have become more unified since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, when some capitals refused to condemn the action in the UN. However, in 2022, no African country supported the annexation of Ukrainian territory. “These shifts show that some African countries, although tied to Russia through history and a variety of co-operative relationships, do not endorse Russia’s use of violence to attack neighbours or annex parts of their territories,” Ms. Yade told me.
In contrast to Russia, Ukraine is serious about its role as a major supplier of food for countries on the edge of starvation. Despite the threats of maritime mines and Russian strikes, the Ukrainian Navy announced this week the opening of sea corridors for commercial ships from three ports in the Odesa region.
But in order to secure these routes and reassure nervous shipowners, Ukraine will need the most advanced air defence systems – chiefly the U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air system – to deter Russian cruise missiles. NATO also needs to finally provide armed escorts for commercial ships in international waters, even if this is interpreted by Russia as an escalation.
This would in effect represent the second major step in the West’s direct involvement in the war. The first was the supply of defensive and offensive weapons; the third and final phase would be boots on the ground and pilots in the air over Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
But anything less will allow the Kremlin to further weaponize food and degrade Ukraine’s role as food supplier to the world.