Pierre Poilievre’s support for the convoy is not the fatal political decision it seems

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“I’m proud of the truckers and I stand with them,” said Pierre Poilievre, the current front-runner to be the next leader of what was once known as the law-and-order party, on a podcast recorded on Feb. 10. By that time, protesters had been squatting in downtown Ottawa for more than a week, blaring their horns at all hours and harassing local residents and essential workers. Blockades at Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., and the border in Coutts, Alta., had stalled or completely halted the transport of millions of dollars worth of goods between the U.S. and Canada. Yet Mr. Poilievre, who has harped about the economic consequences of federal COVID-19 restrictions for months, waved off the economic consequences of this lawless action. “Canadians have finally had it,” he said.

Mr. Poilievre’s position didn’t waver as the situation escalated over the next week. “Freedom is on the move,” he tweeted on Feb. 14, purportedly in response to the lifting of proof-of-vaccination requirements in Saskatchewan, but clearly in the language of the convoy. That day, RCMP arrested 13 people – some of whom have since been charged with conspiracy to commit murder – and seized a cache of weapons at the Coutts border blockade. Mr. Poilievre nevertheless maintained that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could end the protests that day by simply lifting the vaccine mandate for truckers, as if any of this was still, or ever, about the trucking mandate, and as if the best way to deal with hostage takers is to yield swiftly to their demands.

There are many things one could call Mr. Poilievre for his recent activity: hypocritical, for lambasting railway protesters for “taking away the freedom of other people to move their goods and themselves” in 2020, but cheering on those who block borders now; reckless, for encouraging demonstrations in defiance of the law, whose participants have, among other orders, called for the overthrow of the government; craven, for latching onto an occupation in order to score cheap political points against the Prime Minister. But one label that doesn’t really fit Mr. Poilievre is “dumb.” The would-be leader of the Official Opposition knows what he’s doing; He just doesn’t seem to care if it stokes further chaos.

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At first glance, Mr. Poilievre’s support of the convoy might seem to be a poor strategic decision. While it might not be a deal-breaker in Conservative circles, Mr. Poilievre will have to face the general electorate if he wins the CPC leadership, and that electorate overwhelmingly opposes the convoy, according to polling. But Mr. Poilievre’s eye, no doubt, is on the long game: An election is likely years out, and by that time most people’s memories of the protest will have faded (with the exception, perhaps, of those immediately affected in Ottawa’s downtown core). The visceral, emotional reaction many observers are experiencing watching demonstrators occupy territory in the name of “freedom” will evolve to a stoic recollection of facts – it’s just what happens as time passes, especially in regards to events that don’t meaningfully affect our daily lives.

But it will be different for those who participated in the convoy, or who otherwise saw it as representative of the beliefs they’ve been told by government are “unacceptable” to possess. Demonstrators who left their jobs and families to join the protests, and who risked arrest, forfeiture and/or financial penalties, will forever remember the politician who spoke to them, not at them. Indeed, on Wednesday Mr. Poilievre tweeted a message directly to protesters: “When Trudeau is nasty, show calm. When he uses intimidation, show peace.” The connection he’s forming with them is deep, personal and existential: Here’s a politician who’s acknowledging who they are, what they’re angry about, and telling them it’s okay to feel that way. Protesters and their supporters will remember that years on.

Whether it is moral, or decent, or responsible for a political leader to be supporting a convoy that has disrupted trade, terrorized local residents and openly flouted the law – to say nothing of the odious views espoused by some of its leaders – is another matter. (A politician can acknowledge the angst of protesters without shrugging off their lawlessness, as Mr. Poilievre has done.) But it is not the fatal political calculation that those who utterly abhor the convoy and all it represents might think it is. There are more than 840,000 people who supported Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada in the last election who are ready to be scooped up by a Conservative leader who speaks to them – not to mention and a fractured Conservative caucus yearning for a bold leader to take a daring stand. Mr. Poilievre’s support of the trucker convoy offers something to both. It might be a shameless political tactic that’s corrosive for the country as a whole – but for Mr. Poilievre personally, it’s not a bad idea.

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