Margaret McCuaig-Johnston is an advisory board member of the China Risks Institute and senior fellow with the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.
People in China and around the world have been transfixed by the videos of thousands of protesters in more than a dozen cities across the country. Many of the protesters were reacting to the news of 10 deaths in a fire in Urumqi of people reportedly locked in due to COVID-19 restrictions and unable to escape. But Uyghur advocates in Canada say the number was actually 44. Mehmet Tohti, executive director of the Uyghur Rights Advocacy Project, believes the authorities suppressed the real number, saying photos of 17 of the dead have appeared online. In the Uyghur region of China, there is evidence that people are often being confined to homes not due to COVID-19 restrictions but simply to restrict their movement.
Citizens across China have put messages such as “Freedom, not lockdowns,” and “Life, not Zero COVID policies,” on the Chinese social media platforms WeChat and Weibo in such numbers that the censors can no longer keep up. This new-found freedom to speak out has emboldened more protesters, who are often seen holding up blank pieces of paper to show the state is trying to silence them, and sometimes people are detained for their blank pieces of paper. Many are appalled at the reports of deaths and suicides due to the lockdowns. This week, Human Rights Watch called on Beijing to permit peaceful protest of the Zero COVID restrictions, pointing out that Article 35 of China’s own constitution provides for freedom of “assembly, association, procession and demonstration.”
Nothing like this has ever happened before in China. Some have compared the protests to the popular uprising in 1989 at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and in other cities across the country until the sudden crackdown that silenced everyone overnight. It seems like Tiananmen when you see the many young people at Chinese university campuses who are protesting. But there are significant differences. The Tiananmen protests were built on hope and positive signs that democracy might come to China. The COVID-19 protests are built on anger – anger against the heavy, and often arbitrary, lockdown rules; anger against the poor conditions in lockdown; and anger at the regime, specifically the Communist Party and President Xi Jinping, who set the rigid Zero COVID policy from the top. There have been calls at protests and online for his resignation, which is incredible, considering China’s strict surveillance.
But is this enough to bring down Mr. Xi? It’s not likely. The police are deploying massive numbers of officers to quell the protests as they pop up – a kind of whack-a-mole approach to policing, which is showing us police bludgeoning protesters as they catch them. For the individuals, many of them brave young people, there is significant risk of derailing their future with a jail sentence, especially as economic problems worsen.
Since the National Party Congress in October, Mr. Xi has been able to surround himself with loyal “yes men,” and they are unlikely to force him from office. Those with potential leadership calibre to replace him have found themselves charged under Mr. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. Furthermore, Mr. Xi is responsible for all three tracks of authority: the government, the military and the party. Therefore, there is no independent authority that could begin a quiet process aimed at his removal.
The National Health Commission this month began to soften COVID-19 policies by shortening the quarantine time and easing restrictions on close contacts. But there are significant risks with that, too. With its less effective vaccines, Chinese citizens are not in a position to defend themselves against rampant spread. And with an aging population, many would die.
China to date has refused to accept the mRNA vaccines that have been successful in the rest of the world. Importing them would be an acknowledgment that China’s vaccines are less effective, an admission that would bring a significant loss of face to the regime. Indeed, reversing course on COVID-19 policies could be seen as an acknowledgment that the policies of the past three years ultimately have not worked.
Today, there is a heavy police presence in all the places where the protests have previously been held. Perhaps the protests will wane for now. But there is no prospect of an end to COVID-19 in China. With many elderly Chinese remaining unvaccinated, and China recently hitting new highs for daily infections, uncontrolled spread is still a big concern. Without Western vaccines, China could face mounting unrest in the coming months and years, and is likely to become even more closed off to other countries as it tries to insulate itself against infection.