U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. December 21, 2019. We predict there is a 55 per cent chance that Mr. Trump will be re-elected.Marco Bello/Reuters
A year ago at this time, we correctly predicted the Trudeau Liberals would be re-elected, and that the new government was likely to be a minority. We also correctly prophesied that the People’s Party of Canada would not win the 12 seats needed for official party status – but we mistakenly said the same about the Bloc Québécois.
We were right, and playing it safe, when we said Alberta’s NDP government had a low probability of re-election; we threw up an air ball when we gave the Toronto Raptors only a 25-per-cent chance of winning the NBA championship. We correctly predicted Theresa May would not end the year as British prime minister; we incorrectly predicted that, by now, Brexit would have already happened.
And we were right when we said U.S. President Donald Trump would be impeached, yet would end 2019 still in office. We were wrong in expecting that his Senate trial would have already concluded by now.
So what does this year have in store? The Globe and Mail editorial board’s crack team of odds-makers is once again ready to make book on the likelihood of various occurrences, or non-occurrences, in 2020. Place your bets.
U.S. POLITICS
Odds that U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate: 92 per cent
Odds that the Senate will conduct a trial of Mr. Trump: 92 per cent
Odds of conviction: 4 per cent
Odds that, in the November elections, the Democratic Party will retain control of the House: 85 per cent
Odds that the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate: 85 per cent
Odds that Mr. Trump will be re-elected: 55 per cent
CHINA
Probability that, one year from now, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig will still be behind bars in China: 68 per cent
Odds that, one year from now, Meng Wanzhou is still in Canada: 68 per cent
Odds that Ottawa imposes restrictions on the use of Huawei products in 5G networks: 59 per cent
Probability that democracy protests will continue in Hong Kong: 96 per cent
Probability that Beijing will intervene militarily in Hong Kong: 17 per cent
THE ECONOMY
Probability of a U.S. recession in 2020: 33 per cent
Of a Canadian recession: 33 per cent
Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at least once in the next year: 77 per cent
Of the Fed raising interest rates at least once: 44 per cent
Odds the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates at least once: 28 per cent
Of the BoC raising interest rates: 36 per cent
Probability of the S&P/TSX Composite Index finishing the year higher: 46 per cent
Odds that Canada’s unemployment rate (5.9 per cent in November) will be higher a year from now: 39 per cent
Probability of the Canadian dollar ending the year above 76 US cents: 61 per cent
THE OIL PATCH
Odds that, a year from now, West Texas Intermediate crude will be above US$60 a barrel: 37 per cent
Odds that the gap between WTI and Western Canada Select will be less than US$25 a barrel: 71 per cent
Probability that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will be further delayed by an appeal before the Federal Court of Appeal: 19 per cent
Odds the project will be completed in 2020: 0 per cent
In 2021: 0 per cent
In 2022: 85 per cent
Odds of Ottawa selling Trans Mountain in 2020: 38 per cent
SPORTS
At the 2016 Summer Olympics, Canada won 22 medals, good for 10th place in the medal count. Odds that Canada will win more medals in 2020: 77 per cent
Probability of a Canadian team winning the World Series: 2 per cent
Probability of a Canadian team winning the NBA Championship: 16 per cent
Probability of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup: 23 per cent