A month ago, when John Tory marked the third anniversary of his election as Toronto's mayor, the conventional wisdom was that he would glide to another win in the next vote on Oct. 22, 2018. The surprising events in Montreal since then give reason for doubt.
Valérie Plante came from nowhere to topple incumbent Denis Coderre on Nov. 5. Mr. Coderre, a former Liberal MP and cabinet minister, was, like Mr. Tory, a well-known, well-established figure. Just about everyone expected him to win a second term without breaking a sweat.
Ms. Plante beat him handily. An engaging, energetic 43-year-old, she became the first woman elected to lead Montreal. She was a fresh face with bold ideas, including a whole new Metro line. Exit Mr. Coderre, stage right.
Like voters in so many parts of the world, Montrealers wanted change. Both opposition parties in Ottawa have chosen leaders in their 30s. People all over are fed up with stale plans and familiar voices.
Mr. Tory is 63. Before he ran for mayor, he was a businessman, broadcaster and leader of the provincial Tories. He has many excellent qualities: intelligence, decency, dedication, an enormous capacity for work. Fresh he is not. No one would call him inspirational, either.
On Monday, in a downtown hotel ballroom, he delivered a speech as tepid as yesterday's soup. Some of those in the Canadian Club audience lowered their heads to gaze at their phones as Mr. Tory went on about his "balanced, steady" approach to governing. The only stir in the crowd came when he offered his congratulations to Prince Harry and Meghan Markle.
Toronto is not Montreal, of course. The politics and the politicians are very different. Mr. Coderre was a grandstanding mayor who rubbed many Montrealers the wrong way with big spending and showy projects. Mr. Tory has made a point of being moderate and disciplined, in contrast to the last guy to hold his job. "This is who I am," he told the lunchtime crowd on Monday. "It's easier just to be yourself."
In a speech that set the table for next year's re-election contest, he portrayed himself as a reliable, responsible mayor, one who stands between those on the left who always want to spend more and more no matter what the fiscal realities and those on the right who want to cut everything in sight. He would not "say no to everything and hold our city back." The city needs to invest "wisely and compassionately" in things such as better housing and transit. But nor would he blow the budget or pick the taxpayers' pockets. The city's proposed budget for 2018 keeps the property tax increase to no more than the rate inflation (although other charges are going up, up, up).
This could still be a formula for success. Mr. Tory deserves credit for bringing a measure of civility back to city hall. He really does work like a demon. An early riser, he arrives at City Hall most mornings while the building is still all but empty. Co-operating with other levels of government, he has helped secure billions in new investment for city needs.
But he has failed to fulfill some of his promises. His plan for a SmartTrack transit system is a shadow of the 22-stop "surface subway" he put in the shop window in his previous election campaign. Some of his newer projects seem wildly unrealistic. The estimated cost of his proposed Rail Deck Park downtown – a great idea in theory – has soared to a staggering $1.66-billion.
A wise bettor would still give Mr. Tory the edge next year. Doug Ford, who has announced plans to challenge him from the right, has none of the little-guy appeal of his late brother, Rob. There is no sign yet of a prominent challenger emerging on the left. Incumbency is usually a big advantage in Toronto politics. Bland often works. The equally "balanced" and "responsible" Art Eggleton led the city for more than a decade.
But Montreal shows the danger of taking voters for granted. If Mr. Tory hopes to prevail in 2018, he will need to give them more than steady as she goes.
Marcus Gee