There is no easy way out of Spain's deepest political crisis since rebel army leaders attempted a 1981 military coup, motivated in part by the then fledgling democracy's move to provide greater autonomy to the restless regions of Catalonia and the Basque Country. But there are now only hours left if Spain's leaders are to prevent a very bad situation from becoming a tragic one.
Spain's central government is set to take control of the Catalonian regional government and officially dismiss Catalonian President Carles Puigdemont on Friday. That's when the country's senate is expected to authorize Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's request to invoke a never-used clause of the constitution that allows Madrid to assume all regional powers in the national interest.
On Wednesday, Mr. Puigdemont rejected the senate's invitation to appear before it on Thursday or Friday to argue the case against invoking Article 155 of the constitution, saying his appearance would be pointless given Mr. Rajoy's apparent determination to take this extraordinary step. Mr. Puigdemont now faces the choice of dissolving the Catalonian parliament on his own by Friday, and calling early elections, or letting Mr. Rajoy take the blame for whatever follows.
If Spanish democracy looks messy now, the world may have seen nothing yet. While warnings of a second Spanish civil war are far-fetched, no one can rule out increasingly violent clashes between police and independence supporters. The anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), whose 10 members have propped up Mr. Puigdemont's coalition in the Catalonian parliament, has called for "massive civil disobedience" if Madrid moves ahead with Article 155.
However, the CUP also opposes dissolving parliament to allow for new elections, the least disruptive option currently on the table and, according to a weekend poll, an idea supported by 68 per cent of Catalonian voters. On Tuesday, a CUP official dismissed the idea of new elections as the "nuclear option designed to end the Catalonian independence process."
Mr. Puigdemont's Together for Yes-CUP coalition, which holds 72 of the Generalitat's 135 seats, indeed risks being swept aside in an early election as voters seek stability. But voters could also move to punish pro-unity parties in a move to sanction Madrid's heavy-handedness, which so far has included unleashing riot police to prevent Catalonians from voting in the region's Oct. 1 referendum, a vote that had been declared illegal by Spain's constitutional court.
Despite a 90-per-cent victory for the Yes side, only 43 per cent of Catalonian voters participated in the referendum, which was boycotted by anti-independence parties. That did not prevent Mr. Puigdemont from making what appeared to be an Oct. 10 unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), only to immediately suspend it and call for "dialogue" with Madrid.
Mr. Rajoy instead responded by asking Mr. Puidgemont whether he had in fact declared independence. When no reply came, the Prime Minister announced on Saturday that he would invoke Article 155. "This is what happens," Mr. Rajoy intoned, "when you put yourself in the hands of radicals."
This reference to Mr. Puigdemont's reliance on the CUP aimed to sew division among an already fractious Yes coalition. Invoking Article 155, Mr. Rajoy hopes, can destroy it altogether.
Or not. The prospect of Madrid taking control not only of the Catalonian government, but also of the regional police force and public broadcaster, is a frightful one for any self-respecting democracy to contemplate. While the opposition Socialists and Citizens Party have so far supported the moves undertaken by Mr. Rajoy and his People's Party-led government, the far-left Podemos has not. And some Socialists, who call for constitutional reform similar to the 2006 pact granting Catalonia more autonomy that was ultimately struck down in court, could waver if Mr. Rajoy's approach makes a messy situation even messier.
Someone needs to step up to defuse this crisis. But Spain has refused outside mediation and the European Union has not offered it, choosing instead to back Mr. Rajoy's hardline stand. While the final outcome remains in doubt, the consequences of whatever happens are clear.
"Not only will Catalonia not become independent, it will emerge from this diminished and weakened, with less strength to negotiate when the inevitable attempt to restore constitutional consensus takes place," Catalonian-born El Pais columnist Lluis Bassets wrote this week. "Spain will also lose a lot, particularly with regard to its image, the prestige of its institutions and the attractiveness of its brilliant story of democratic recovery and openness to the world."
Konrad Yakabuski