Don Boudria served in the House of Commons from 1984 to 2006. He was Government Leader in the House under Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. He also served in the Ontario Legislature from 1981 to 1984.
In the aftermath of the May 9 British Columbia provincial election, several Canadians and presumably all 87 Members of the Legislative Assembly were left scratching their heads about the future. While some consulted parliamentary precedence and jurisprudence domestically and elsewhere in the Commonwealth, a few were probably dusting off their Ouija boards as to what to do next. The issue was complicated even further in the days after the election with the announcement of the NDP-Green Party arrangement.
On one hand, Premier Christy Clark has claimed the right to meet the legislature, having won the largest number of seats, 43 of 87, compared to 41 for the NDP and three for the Greens. Although not a constitutional requirement to governing, she and her party also won the popular vote in the election, albeit by a slim majority. For its part, the NDP has, in hand, a document bearing the signature of 44 MLAs pledging confidence in a government to be led by the NDP. Now, the Premier has said that the legislature will be convened on June 22, and round one of this bout will be solved in short order.
Given the almost even number of seats in the assembly, neither party will be enthusiastic about giving up one of its members to become Speaker since, once chosen, he/she will become independent of partisan politics, will only vote to break a tie, and will only do so following a long list of precedence. One cannot assume that the Speaker, having been chosen from a party, will break a tie by voting in favour of his or her former seatmates, say the Liberals.
Be that as it may, a Speaker must be elected, and the Lieutenant-Governor would not entertain reading the Throne Speech to open the session until a Speaker is selected. Despite musings to the contrary, the Liberals will likely be compelled to provide a candidate for the position since it is they who require the Speech from the Throne, followed by a confidence vote to establish their right to govern.
Although the role of Speaker is important in a parliamentary democracy, it is seldom the subject of everyday conversation. However, as of late it has become the topic to discuss at Tim Hortons, and with cab drivers on the way to the airport. Some pundits and a few wannabees have even advocated a possible solution whereby the Speaker could be chosen from outside the legislature.
Likely, the NDP and the Greens would not agree to this – and they command the majority of votes. Additionally, to effect such a change would require a modification to the Standing Orders of the Assembly plus a Constitutional amendment, neither of which can be done without the legislature having sat first. The legislature cannot sit without having first chosen a Speaker and, subsequently, a Speech from the Throne followed by a confidence vote. In other words, choosing a Speaker from outside the ranks of the membership of the legislature is not realistic, nor is any other solution for changing the Speaker's role before the assembly is convened to sit.
Notwithstanding what Ms. Clark has said, she has practically no choice other than to provide the candidacy of one of her parliamentary colleagues to be Speaker, since without it, the assembly cannot sit and she would be forced to resign. Having chosen a Speaker, the assembly will then be convened and the Throne Speech read. However, the Liberals will only have 42 remaining votes and the combined opposition 44. Barring some unforeseen resignation or floor-crossing, the Premier and her government will likely be defeated. The Lieutenant-Governor will then ask Mr. Horgan to form an NDP government, and he too will present a Throne Speech, which I speculate is being written now.
At this point, the Speaker – presumably having been chosen from the Liberal ranks – will remain in the chair, having been chosen to serve the entire parliamentary mandate and having pledged to do so. Unless he or she resigns prematurely, which many people would argue is a breach of the neutrality of the position, the Speaker chosen from the Liberal ranks will still be there when the NDP Throne Speech is voted on, having a combined NDP-Green support of 44 to 42 for the Liberals. Thus, the NDP government could survive the Throne Speech vote but would likely not last long because of its razor-thin majority.
Again, barring defections and or resignations, British Columbians could be back to the polling stations within a year.
Following a period of political uncertainty, and whenever the next election happens, both the NDP and the Liberals will likely campaign on the need for a majority, or the need for a clear mandate from voters. Judging by the 1972 federal example and by the 1987 Ontario example, such campaigns are usually difficult for the party holding the balance of power, in this case, the Greens.