Andrew Steele is vice-president at StrategyCorp, Canada's integrated public affairs, communications and management consultancy. He worked in the Liberal Party of Canada's war room in 2000 and in other elections across the country.
The victory of a new Conservative Party leader on May 27 ends one contest but begins another: the battle to define him or her. While Conservative partisans will toil to build a positive brand for their leader, their opponents will start working just as hard to increase that person's negatives.
Think of the new leader like an empty vase. One party is filling it with perfume and the other with poison, and the voters will take a sniff in the lead-up to the 2019 election.
Remember Stockwell Day? As a fresh voice from Alberta, the former Canadian Alliance leader could have contrasted positively against a 66-year-old Jean Chrétien. But Liberals won the battle to define Mr. Day, emblematically using Barney the Dinosaur to highlight questions about his beliefs on evolution and creationism.
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While a well-defined national figure is more likely to shrug off opposition branding, high-profile Conservatives such as Peter MacKay and Jason Kenney took a pass on the Conservative leadership contest. Kevin O'Leary joined late and quit early, stealing the media attention that could have allowed someone else to come to prominence.
As a result, the new Conservative leader will have one of two problems: being damaged or being unknown.
Kellie Leitch
Ms. Leitch generated attention for her Canadian values test for immigrants and her description of U.S. President Donald Trump's message as "one that we need delivered in Canada as well." This has earned her support from a faction of bedrock Conservatives, but at the cost of daunting negatives among the general public. Combined with her call for a "barbaric cultural practices hotline" during the 2015 election campaign, it will be difficult for Conservatives to sell Ms. Leitch without a massive rebranding.
Maxime Bernier
Outside of political circles, people recall Mr. Bernier for resigning as foreign affairs minister after leaving materials for a NATO summit at his girlfriend's house, unforgettable because the woman had previously been married to someone with Hells Angels connections.
But of greater challenge to Conservative strategists will be Mr. Bernier's leadership platform. On health care, he's told The Globe "Canadians are ready for a two-tier system." His tax plan – including eliminating the capital gains tax – could be portrayed as tilted to help the wealthy. While most Canadians may not be interested in supply management, many farmers certainly are, and Mr. Bernier's advocacy for its demise could seem extreme in key rural constituencies. While provocative in a leadership race, his statements may haunt Mr. Bernier in a general election.
The rest of the field
While the remaining candidates may be recognizable to some readers of The Globe, the vast majority of Canadians do not know Andrew Saxton from Andrew Scheer. In fact, a leader of the opposition selected from the field could have the lowest public profile since Joe Clark launched a chorus of "Joe Who?" The only thing most voters could say about the remaining candidates is that they served in the government of Stephen Harper. This creates an easy tag for their opponents: "Same as Harper."
While he is a hero to Conservative partisans, Mr. Harper's absence at the convention is telling. Focus groups reveal lingering feelings that the Harper Conservatives let the middle class fall behind to the benefit of the wealthy. And the leadership campaign did the party few favours with some candidates doubling down on the divisive rhetoric of the 2015 election. Anyone emerging from this field will face a Hobson's choice: take on all the baggage from the Harper era for easy definition early on, or explicitly reject the Harper brand and start from scratch.
The Conservative party was defeated but not demolished in the 2015 election. The party has a healthy fundraising arm, sizable caucus and a strong base. Social conservatives and climate change skeptics have no clear alternative, leaving some flexibility to move on policy. But these will be of no help in the future if the Conservative leader is held back by his or her past. After the gruelling marathon of recent months, a longer and higher-stakes race is about to begin.