Antonia Maioni is a professor of political science at McGill University.
If Quebeckers were paying attention to the election campaign on the weekend, it was probably to watch Thomas Mulcair's appearance on Sunday's iconic talk show Tout le monde en parle. The NDP Leader turned in a solid performance, although not a spectacular one. He was his policy-wonky self in laying out the details of his party's program, taking special care to outline the similarities between the Conservatives and Liberals. Not one question was asked with reference to the Sherbrooke Declaration or the Clarity Act, which may mean that Quebeckers now feel that point is moot with regard to the NDP. But the question of the niqab did come up, more than once. Mr. Mulcair did not change his tune, but he softened his tone, trying to acquit himself by turning the issue into a point of law rather than a personal preference.
For Quebeckers in search of political tea leaves, it wasn't the "aha" moment they may have experienced with Jack Layton's appearance on Tout le monde en parle in the 2011 campaign. Then, they had been receptive to the NDP message – voting for what was, for all intents and purposes, a new party – and to its messenger, whom they came to appreciate as a worthy reflection of their interests and values. This time round, Mr. Mulcair came across as a genuine guy and genial politician, at ease and on-topic. But Quebeckers have been rattled by the NDP's position on certain issues, and disappointed by Mr. Mulcair in his defence of the wearing of the niqab, which still evokes a much larger debate about reasonable accommodation of religious differences and gender equality in Quebec.
Still, Mr. Mulcair did signal what will probably be the NDP's strategy, both in Quebec and across the rest of Canada, from now until election day: taking clear aim at Stephen Harper (not mentioning either Justin Trudeau or Gilles Duceppe by name) and presenting the NDP as a viable alternative to the "old" parties, Conservative and Liberal alike.
Of course, what happens may not be as simple as that. Despite the protest vote that brought the NDP to prominence, a battleground for Quebec has re-emerged in 2015 with opinion polls showing a much more fluid situation than in 2011. While the NDP still dominates across the province – both in votes and seat projections – the dip in its numbers means that the other parties can take advantage of the crack in their rival's armour. And they have the potential to make significant gains: the Conservatives in and around Quebec City, the Liberals in and around Montreal, and even the Bloc Québécois if it can muster its vote in specific ridings. As the Tout le monde en parle pundit quipped, it looks more like a tricolour Popsicle than an orange crush.
Indeed, what we may see, for the first time in many a federal election, is a divided electorate rather than the dominance of one party in Quebec. And while that's bad news for parties hoping for a groundswell of support, it's good news in the sense that Quebeckers seem actually engaged and motivated to make a choice rather than ride a wave this time round.