It's a wish on the lips of most everyone you encounter. Donald Trump doesn't last. He's forced out of office before the end of his first term. Sanity, normalcy, decency is restored to the unhinged Oval Office. Celebrations break out everywhere.
It's a pleasing thought. But it isn't going to happen.
Reasons? You might start with a half dozen.
1. Brute force. Mr. Trump is resilient. His bristling, offensive form of strength cannot be underestimated. He has an unusual capacity – with sophomoric vitriol as his weapon of choice – to diminish his adversaries.
He took down "little Marco" and "crooked Hillary." He took down the entire Republican Party establishment. He will take down others. His self-assuredness knows no bounds. His career story is one of bullheaded perseverance, of taking hits but staying standing.
2. Base of support. In a polarized United States, Mr. Trump has a unique outside-the-bubble support base that holds firm. His job approval rating is close to 40 per cent. That's low. But given the series of Trump embarrassments, given his failings on his policy agenda, given the flimflam, the recklessness, the daily tawdry upheavals, it's remarkable it isn't lower – down in the 25-per-cent range that George W. Bush once found himself. What's apparent is that Mr. Trump's supporters are not bothered by his badness. They wanted a disruptor. They have one.
3. The economic cycle. Pollsters will tell you that a sinking economy is the one thing that could prompt Mr. Trump's populist hordes to desert him. He has done next to nothing on the economy so far. The infrastructure program is stalled, as is the promise of sweeping tax reform. But the economy, more often than not, is a story of forces beyond the leader's control. Mr. Trump has hit a reasonably good cycle. Growth isn't strong, but it is strong enough – unemployment is unusually low – to keep him afloat.
4. Political precedent. The Trump Republicans have won some small electoral contests to date, most notably one in a Georgia Congressional district where the Democrats spent lavishly. The first big test will be the 2018 midterm elections. Even though the Democrats show few signs of recovery, Mr. Trump could lose badly in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. But that would hardly be reason enough to get the knives out. Given the way of U.S. politics, it would be par for the course. Midterm election disasters for incumbent parties have become commonplace. Barack Obama suffered humiliating losses in both the 2010 and 2014 midterms, George W. Bush the same in 2006, Bill Clinton the same in 1994. With the bar so low, it will be hard for this President to come under it.
5. Collusion scandal. If in fact the Trump team – and it's a big if – is guilty of collusion with the Russians, it doesn't necessarily signal end game. Republicans don't see it as such a big issue. Russians aren't viewed in the Red Scare terms they were in Cold War times. And Mr. Trump is already insulating himself against potentially damaging findings. He's discrediting the inquiry of special counsel Robert Mueller with accusations of political bias. He may even go so far as to replace him if he gets too hot on the trail.
6. The presidential pardon. If the Mueller inquiry is allowed to proceed and if Mr. Trump and associates are guilty of having personally colluded with the Russians or of obstructing justice, the President still has an ace card to draw on. In the event charges against aides or impeachment proceedings against him are forthcoming, the President has suggested he may well exercise his power of pardon to exonerate any or all of his colleagues and maybe even himself. If this sounds farfetched – and it does – let's recall that there is nothing about this President that is farfetched.
Going to extremes is what Mr. Trump is all about. He will survive because he will do anything and everything that is necessary to survive.
Lawrence Martin