On July 1, Canada is set to impose tariffs on a long list of American exports. While the list of affected products other than steel and aluminum may seem random (gherkins, pizza, bourbon and lawn mowers), Canada’s retaliatory strategy becomes clear in projections for the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs while 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will turn over. Canada’s strategy? Hit President Donald Trump in swing states and those that supported him in the 2016 presidential race.
2018 House Election Map
Democrat
Republican
Contested*
Pottstown
Wis.
Pa.
Iowa
Ohio
Nev.
Ky.
N.C.
Fla.
*According to 270 to Win, “64 ‘undecided’ districts in
the map above are rated ‘toss-up’ or ‘leans’ by at least
one of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report
or Inside Elections.”
Florida
Orange juice is perhaps the sunshine
state’s best-known export – and it’s
on Canada’s hit list. Florida went to Mr.
Trump narrowly in 2016 and was tar-
geted in the federal government’s
2017 lobbying blitz that urged U.S.
legislators to maintain NAFTA. In 2016,
Florida exported $39-million in orange
juice to Canada as part of $57-million
worth of fruit juice they exported
north of the border.
Iowa
Also a house election toss-up, the
state’s largest market for exports, as
of 2013, was Canada – representing
32 per cent of their $13.9-billion total, sup-
porting tens of thousands of jobs. A
key product is soybeans – and one of
the planned tariffs specifically hits
soya sauce exports.
Kentucky
Whisky will feel the burn of planned
tariffs; the home state of Senate Ma-
jority Leader Mitch McConnell – who is
not up for re-election – is a hub for
distillers, with the Kentucky Distillers’
Association listing 17,500 jobs stem-
ming from the industry. As of 2012,
the United States as a whole was
sending nearly $25-million in liqueurs,
cordials, whiskies and vodka across
the border. The EU has also singled
out Kentucky whisky as a target for
retaliatory tariffs.
Nevada
Both House and Senate represent-
atives are up for election in the fall. Of
its four congressional districts, just
one is projected to swing Republican –
with its smallest district leaning
toward the Democrats and the two
others projected to be contested.
Roasted, caffeinated coffee is one of
the state’s top 15 exports – and one
of the specific goods on Canada’s
tariff list.
North Carolina
What about lawn mowers? That tariff
hits another swing state, where Honda
Power Equipment has a major plant.
According to the company, more than
400,000 North-Carolina-made Honda
power-equipment products – includ-
ing snow blowers and lawn mowers –
were exported from the U.S. in 2013.
Ohio
Why is pizza on the list? In a swing
state already set to feel the impact
from Canada’s steel tariffs themselves,
which could hit AK Steel and other
mills, tacking on pizza raises the
stakes. Ohio has been home to Nest-
le’s Pizza Division since 2014, churn
ing out such brands as DiGiorno and
California Pizza Kitchen. J.M. Smucker
Co. is also headquartered here, taking
the hit from jam and jelly tariffs.
Pennsylvania
A tariff on steel beer kegs hits one
point on the map. The American Keg
Company is the only U.S. maker of
steel beer kegs, located in Pottstown
– inside the 6th congressional district,
which has been forecast to lean Dem-
ocratic in the upcoming House race.
The state is also home to the head
quarters of United States Steel Corp.,
one of the strongest advocates for
U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel.
Wisconsin
Upcoming house races in a state that
was crucial to Mr. Trump’s presidential
win are expected to be split between
Republicans and Democrats. Slapping
a tariff on pickles and cucumbers here
would hit an industry that once had a
significant presence in Ontario. In
2012, dominant pickle producer Bick’s
closed plants in Dunnville and Delhi,
Ont., and moved across the border to
– you guessed it – Wisconsin. It’s also
‘America’s Dairyland.’ Mr. Trump has
pointed to Wisconsin as a victim of
Canada’s protection of its dairy industry.
Total trade with Canada,
by state, all commodities
2017, in billions of $US
Less than $10B
10 to 30
30 to 50
Over 50
Mich.
Ohio
Ill.
Calif.
Texas
Trade values of products
subject to tariff
Customs basis, 2017,
in millions of dollars**
2017 Canadian
trade value
Importing country - U.S.
Tariff
Steel products
25%
$7,205
Aluminum products
10
9,196
Total
$16,401
Importing country - Canada
Steel products
25
$6,287
Aluminum products
10
3,008
Circuit boards
10
1,040
Sauces and condiments
10
842
Thermostats
10
726
Toilet paper
10
670
Household appliances
10
612
Motorboats
10
609
Coffee
10
525
Chocolate and candy
10
459
Plastic bags
10
447
Plastic household articles
10
343
Upholstered wooden seats
10
327
Lawn mowers
10
301
Coated and uncoated paper
10
286
Flavoured water
10
253
Skin creams
10
229
Soups
10
204
Water heaters
10
175
Beef
10
170
Orange juice
10
165
Cans of iron or steel
10
157
Dishwasher detergents
10
121
Room deodorizers
10
121
Pizza and quiche
10
119
Other
10
1,236
Total
$19,432
**Product descriptions are illustrative and do not
necessarily reflect official Harmonized
System nomenclature.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: 270towin.com;
u.s. census bureau; statistics canada
2018 House Election Map
Democrat
Republican
Contested*
Pottstown
Wis.
Pa.
Iowa
Ohio
Nev.
Ky.
N.C.
Fla.
*According to 270 to Win, “64 ‘undecided’ districts in the map
above are rated ‘toss-up’ or ‘leans’ by at least one of Sabato’s
Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report or Inside Elections.”
Florida
Orange juice is perhaps the sunshine state’s
best-known export – and it’s on Canada’s hit list.
Florida went to Mr. Trump narrowly in 2016 and was
targeted in the federal government’s 2017 lobbying
blitz that urged U.S. legislators to maintain NAFTA. In
2016, Florida exported $39-million in orange juice to
Canada as part of $57-million worth of fruit juice they
exported north of the border.
Iowa
Also a house election toss-up, the state’s largest
market for exports, as of 2013, was Canada – repre-
senting 32 per cent of their $13.9-billion total, support-
ing tens of thousands of jobs. A key product is
soybeans – and one of the planned tariffs specifically
hits soya sauce exports.
Kentucky
Whisky will feel the burn of planned tariffs; the home
state of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell –
who is not up for re-election – is a hub for distillers,
with the Kentucky Distillers’ Association listing 17,500
jobs stemming from the industry. As of 2012, the
United States as a whole was sending nearly $25-mil-
lion in liqueurs, cordials, whiskies and vodka across
the border. The EU has also singled out Kentucky
whisky as a target for retaliatory tariffs.
Nevada
Both House and Senate representatives are up for
election in the fall. Of its four congressional districts,
just one is projected to swing Republican – with its
smallest district leaning toward the Democrats and
the two others projected to be contested. Roasted,
caffeinated coffee is one of the state’s top 15 exports
– and one of the specific goods on Canada’s tariff list.
North Carolina
What about lawn mowers? That tariff hits another
swing state, where Honda Power Equipment has a
major plant. According to the company, more than
400,000 North-Carolina-made Honda power-equip-
ment products – including snow blowers and lawn
mowers – were exported from the U.S. in 2013.
Ohio
Why is pizza on the list? In a swing state already set
to feel the impact from Canada’s steel tariffs them
selves, which could hit AK Steel and other mills, tack
ing on pizza raises the stakes. Ohio has been home to
Nestle’s Pizza Division since 2014, churning out such
brands as DiGiorno and California Pizza Kitchen. J.M.
Smucker Co. is also headquartered here, taking the hit
from jam and jelly tariffs.
Pennsylvania
A tariff on steel beer kegs hits one point on the map.
The American Keg Company is the only U.S. maker of
steel beer kegs, located in Pottstown – inside the 6th
congressional district, which has been forecast to lean
Democratic in the upcoming House race. The state is
also home to the headquarters of United States Steel
Corp., one of the strongest advocates for U.S. tariffs
on Canadian steel.
Wisconsin
Upcoming house races in a state that was crucial to
Mr. Trump’s presidential win are expected to be split
between Republicans and Democrats. Slapping a tariff
on pickles and cucumbers here would hit an industry
that once had a significant presence in Ontario. In
2012, dominant pickle producer Bick’s closed plants
in Dunnville and Delhi, Ont., and moved across the
border to – you guessed it – Wisconsin. It’s also
‘America’s Dairyland.’ Mr. Trump has pointed to Wis-
consin as a victim of Canada's protection of its dairy
industry.
Total trade with Canada,
by state, all commodities
2017, in billions of $US
Less than $10B
10 to 30
30 to 50
Over 50
Mich.
Ohio
Ill.
Calif.
Texas
Trade values of products
subject to tariff
Customs basis, 2017, in millions of dollars**
Importing country - U.S.
Tariff
2017 Cnd. trade value
Steel products
25%
$7,205
Aluminum products
10
9,196
Total
$16,401
Importing country - Canada
Steel products
25
$6,287
Aluminum products
10
3,008
Circuit boards
10
1,040
Sauces and condiments
10
842
Thermostats
10
726
Toilet paper
10
670
Household appliances
10
612
Motorboats
10
609
Coffee
10
525
Chocolate and candy
10
459
Plastic bags
10
447
Plastic household articles
10
343
Upholstered wooden seats
10
327
Lawn mowers
10
301
Coated and uncoated paper
10
286
Flavoured water
10
253
Skin creams
10
229
Soups
10
204
Water heaters
10
175
Beef
10
170
Orange juice
10
165
Cans of iron or steel
10
157
Dishwasher detergents
10
121
Room deodorizers
10
121
Pizza and quiche
10
119
Other
10
1,236
Total
$19,432
**Product descriptions are illustrative and do not necessarily reflect
official Harmonized System nomenclature.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: 270towin.com;
u.s. census bureau; statistics canada
2018 House Election Map
Democrat
Republican
Contested*
Pottstown
Wis.
Pa.
Iowa
Ohio
Nev.
Ky.
N.C.
Fla.
*According to 270 to Win, “64 'undecided' districts in the map above are rated 'toss-up' or 'leans'
by at least one of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report or Inside Elections.”
Florida
Orange juice is perhaps the sunshine
state’s best-known export – and it’s
on Canada’s hit list. Florida went to Mr.
Trump narrowly in 2016 and was tar-
geted in the federal government’s
2017 lobbying blitz that urged U.S.
legislators to maintain NAFTA. In 2016,
Florida exported $39-million in orange
juice to Canada as part of $57-million
worth of fruit juice they exported
north of the border.
North Carolina
What about lawn mowers? That tariff
hits another swing state, where Honda
Power Equipment has a major plant.
According to the company, more than
400,000 North-Carolina-made Honda
power-equipment products – includ-
ing snow blowers and lawn mowers –
were exported from the U.S. in 2013.
Ohio
Why is pizza on the list? In a swing
state already set to feel the impact
from Canada’s steel tariffs themselves,
which could hit AK Steel and other
mills, tacking on pizza raises the
stakes. Ohio has been home to Nest-
le’s Pizza Division since 2014, churn-
ing out such brands as DiGiorno and
California Pizza Kitchen. J.M. Smucker
Co. is also headquartered here, taking
the hit from jam and jelly tariffs.
Iowa
Also a house election toss-up, the
state’s largest market for exports, as
of 2013, was Canada – representing
32 per cent of their $13.9-billion total,
supporting tens of thousands of jobs. A
key product is soybeans – and one of
the planned tariffs specifically hits
soya sauce exports.
Pennsylvania
A tariff on steel beer kegs hits one
point on the map. The American Keg
Company is the only U.S. maker of
steel beer kegs, located in Pottstown
– inside the 6th congressional district,
which has been forecast to lean Dem-
ocratic in the upcoming House race.
The state is also home to the head
quarters of United States Steel Corp.,
one of the strongest advocates for
U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel.
Kentucky
Whisky will feel the burn of planned
tariffs; the home state of Senate Ma-
jority Leader Mitch McConnell – who is
not up for re-election – is a hub for
distillers, with the Kentucky Distillers’
Association listing 17,500 jobs stem-
ming from the industry. As of 2012,
the United States as a whole was
sending nearly $25-million in liqueurs,
cordials, whiskies and vodka across
the border. The EU has also singled
out Kentucky whisky as a target for
retaliatory tariffs.
Wisconsin
Upcoming house races in a state that
was crucial to Mr. Trump’s presidential
win are expected to be split between
Republicans and Democrats. Slapping
a tariff on pickles and cucumbers here
would hit an industry that once had a
significant presence in Ontario. In
2012, dominant pickle producer Bick’s
closed plants in Dunnville and Delhi,
Ont., and moved across the border to
– you guessed it – Wisconsin. It’s also
‘America’s Dairyland.’ Mr. Trump has
pointed to Wisconsin as a victim of
Canada’s protection of its dairy indus-
try.
Nevada
Both House and Senate represent-
atives are up for election in the fall. Of
its four congressional districts, just
one is projected to swing Republican –
with its smallest district leaning
toward the Democrats and the two
others projected to be contested.
Roasted, caffeinated coffee is one of
the state’s top 15 exports – and one
of the specific goods on Canada’s
tariff list.
Total trade with Canada, by state, all commodities
2017, in billions of $US
Less than $10B
10 to 30
30 to 50
Over 50
Mich.
Ohio
Ill.
Calif.
Texas
Trade values of products subject to tariff
Customs basis, 2017, in millions of dollars**
Importing country - U.S.
Tariff
2017 Canadian trade value
Steel products
25%
$7,205
Aluminum products
10
9,196
Total
$16,401
Importing country - Canada
Steel products
25
$6,287
Aluminum products
10
3,008
Circuit boards
10
1,040
Sauces and condiments
10
842
Thermostats
10
726
Toilet paper
10
670
Household appliances
10
612
Motorboats
10
609
Coffee
10
525
Chocolate and candy
10
459
Plastic bags
10
447
Plastic household articles
10
343
Upholstered wooden seats
10
327
Lawn mowers
10
301
Coated and uncoated paper
10
286
Flavoured water
10
253
Skin creams
10
229
Soups
10
204
Water heaters
10
175
Beef
10
170
Orange juice
10
165
Cans of iron or steel
10
157
Dishwasher detergents
10
121
Room deodorizers
10
121
Pizza and quiche
10
119
Other
10
1,236
Total
$19,432
**Product descriptions are illustrative and do not necessarily reflect official Harmonized
System nomenclature.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: 270towin.com; u.s. census bureau; statistics canada
Victoria Gibson