The premier is still the premier. But New Brunswick’s election campaign isn’t really over.
The province’s voters delivered not only a hung legislature but a Rubik’s Cube of potential pitfalls for any leader who tries to govern. First crack goes to the incumbent, Premier Brian Gallant. And it’s still possible his second-place standing could be a winning position.
In the meantime, New Brunswick can expect Machiavellian political manoeuvres. For Mr. Gallant, it’s all about getting to deliver a Throne Speech, and winning a confidence vote. If he could convince one MLA from the rival Progressive Conservatives to serve as Speaker of the legislature, holding on would get a lot easier.
Right now, there’s spin and confusion, starting with the leaders.
Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs started it on election night when he claimed he won the election because he won the most seats – 22, compared to the 21 taken by Mr. Gallant’s Liberals – even if he didn’t win the 25 needed for a majority.
That’s not accurate, but it’s textbook spin for the opposition to claim that they’re the legitimate winners, and the government is just clinging to power. Yet Mr. Higgs followed it up with the hogwash claim that he’d spoken to constitutional experts, “so we’re good" – though no expert would say the party with the most seats is guaranteed power.
No – a premier stays the premier until he resigns or is dismissed. And if he still has a chance that he can meet the legislature, present a Throne Speech and win a confidence vote, he’s not forced to resign. It’s not up to the whims of Lieutenant-Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau, who is bound to follow constitutional convention. If a premier advises her that he can win the legislature’s confidence, she has to let him try.
Yet on Tuesday, there was still confusion – because while Mr. Gallant was telling reporters he’s going to govern, he didn’t give the Lieutenant-Governor definitive assurances that he can, with a vote of confidence from the legislature. “He indicated he thinks so, however more discussions are necessary,” Ms. Roy-Vienneau’s principal secretary, Tim Richardson, wrote in an e-mail to The Globe and Mail’s Jessica Leeder. “Her Honour awaits his final decision.”
The numbers in the legislature look bad for Mr. Gallant, but they don’t look good for Mr. Higgs, either. And minority legislatures can be full of twists.
Conservative MP Belinda Stronach crossed the floor in 2005 to join Prime Minister Paul Martin’s Liberal government, allowing it to survive a confidence vote the next day. In B.C., Premier John Horgan’s New Democrats convinced a Liberal MLA to serve as Speaker so he couldn’t vote to defeat them.
In New Brunswick, the Progressive Conservatives have 22 seats; the Liberals 21; the Green Party three; and the People’s Alliance, a populist small-c conservative party with a political base among English-speakers in rural areas, has three.
Even with support from Greens, the Liberals would be one vote short of a majority. But that would change if the Liberals convinced a Tory to serve as Speaker – who by convention would not vote to defeat the government. Mr. Higgs said his MLAs are already getting calls.
It’s possible that Mr. Gallant’s Liberals might be able to offer a Throne Speech – usually a vague set of priorities – with enough olive branches to win temporary support from the smaller parties.
That’s complicated because the People’s Alliance is seen as anti-French by many francophones, and therefore political Kryptonite to Mr. Gallant’s base. But it’s not certain the People’s Alliance wants to help the Tories into government, either. And francophone Tory MLA Robert Gauvin has already warned Mr. Higgs that he’s against any formal deal with the Alliance.
So Mr. Gallant still has some hope to hang on. If he loses that first vote on a Throne Speech, Mr. Higgs gets his chance to form a government. But if he can get through a first confidence vote, pass bills one by one and buy time, he might just stay in power long enough so that his defeat would trigger a new election. A sitting premier might be even be able to engineer his own defeat on the issue of his choice. The premier is still premier, but now he’s campaigning just to survive to another election.
Campbell Clark