Goaltending will be a mess regardless of how Maple Leafs’ season closes

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Imagine this scenario for whoever is the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs in a few weeks’ time.

If this season ends as it almost certainly seems it will, the watchword of that regime will be ‘change.’ People want to see the people in charge do something more than fiddle with the fourth line or the seventh defenceman.

The most impactful place to do that is in net.

The Leafs haven’t had a goalie they trusted for 20 years. The easiest way for any executive to earn his stripes in this town is to find the next Curtis Joseph. How will that be done? It can’t be.

However the playoff series against Florida ends, goaltending will be an absolute mess in Toronto next year.

Your first problem was sitting on the bench during Wednesday night’s victory over the Panthers – Matt Murray.

Everyone knew Murray was a misfit toy when the Leafs signed him. The poor guy can’t take the garbage out to the curb without slipping a disc. But the Leafs thought they knew something that every ER doctor in Ottawa and Pittsburgh didn’t.

Functionally, Murray was a healthy scratch on Wednesday. Healthy enough to dress, but not good enough to start. There’s no good spin to put on it – the organization has lost faith in him.

The second problem is the guy who did play – Joseph Woll.

Woll was good. Not great, because he didn’t need to be. Four games into the series, his teammates decided to show up. Florida didn’t have an answer for Toronto’s newly discovered intensity, so Woll didn’t have much to do. But he did what he had to. For any Leafs goalie, that makes you the next Terry Sawchuk.

This next sentence doesn’t make sense anywhere but Toronto – it would have been better if the Leafs had lost and it was Woll’s fault.

Had the Leafs bombed out of the series on Wednesday night with Woll allowing three goals on his first five shots, that would have created fewer issues going forward.

If Woll was bad on Wednesday, Murray would be back as the No. 1, at least for now. It’s not a great situation, but it is at least a stable one.

Murray’s under contract for one more year. No team is boneheaded enough to take him off Toronto’s hands. It would be best for team equilibrium if the goalie position were settled, even if it isn’t settled well. The Leafs are going to have a lot of equilibrium problems this summer. They don’t need another one.

But instead, Woll was good.

What if he’s good again on Friday? And Sunday?

Let’s leave next week out of it. If the Leafs come back and win this series, all sins are forgiven. For now, let’s assume they won’t because almost no one ever does.

If Woll continues to be good in must-win games, he is Toronto’s new saviour. At the very, very least, he is your new No. 2. But most fans and media will want to see him get an extended chance to prove himself.

The fact that Woll hasn’t played 20 games in the NHL means nothing. Given current trends, that works in his favour. Plenty of recent newbies have been monsters in net. Murray was one of them. It’s the reason he keeps getting hired.

If Woll is Toronto’s new No. 1 or No. 1 designate going into next season, the Leafs have a situation.

Murray isn’t going anywhere. He’s tethered to the franchise like an anchor. That leaves Ilya Samsonov as the swing man.

Samsonov is a restricted free agent this off-season. Of all the Leafs, he is the one guy who can’t be blamed for the collapse against Florida. Until he was injured, he also did his job.

Samsonov is due a raise off the US$1.8-million the Leafs paid him this year. As currently constructed, the Leafs can’t afford to give him one.

The budget option is to let Samsonov go, elevate Woll and hope Murray can keep his arm bones connected to his leg bones for one more year. If it were you, would you think that’s possible? Probably not.

The fantasy option is trading Murray to Spartak Moscow and giving a tandem of Samsonov and Woll a go.

The realistic option is chaos and paralysis.

Other regimes on other teams could let Samsonov go because it’s prudent financially. But a Leafs regime can’t risk Samsonov going somewhere else and playing magnificently. That mistake would scar any new (or holdover) executive group.

So what you actually see happening is the Leafs spending the entire summer trying to figure out a way to off-load Murray, while also negotiating with Samsonov, and also trying not to alienate Woll. What promises will have to be made to keep things together, and how will those play out?

While this is happening, the fan base and media will be leaned in over the Leafs’ shoulder screaming soft nothings in their ear about not screwing things up this time.

Whoever ends up the No. 1 goalie in training camp knows the job isn’t theirs. They are only No. 1a).

No. 1b) and maybe No. 1c) will be keeping a beady eye on them. But not as beady as everyone else’s. Two wobbly games in a row means you’re out. Or that you should be out. Or traded. Or demoted. Or fired into the sun.

Whatever Toronto’s problems over the past few years, a full-on, unextinguishable goalie controversy was never one of them. It had its ‘this guy vs. that guy’ moments, but it was always pretty clear who should enjoy precedence. It never worked. But it was clear.

Given how things have gone in the past few days and how foolishly the Leafs have managed their signings, they’re in it now.

So what have the Leafs taken from these playoffs? In all likelihood, a semi-broken curse, an executive bloodletting and a goalie controversy they can’t avoid. At the least.

They’ve traded one big problem for two new ones, with no solutions imminent. While things are about to change, Leafs’ math always stays the same.