In Brazil, the Canadian women will run the world

When we speak about the "darling" of an Olympic Games – which, for very good reasons of commerce, there must always be several – it summons a very specific image to mind.

A female athlete. More plucky than dominating. Often childlike. She stands in literal and metaphoric contrast to her male colleagues, the exception to the rule that men get to be the stars. Mary Lou Retton might exemplify the type.

In Rio, Canada will have no darlings. Instead, women will dominate our Games. In two or three weeks, it's probable that a historic number of female faces will be the ones we remember standing on podiums. Perhaps even a great procession of them.

Predicting anything when it comes to Olympic winners is a mug's game, which is why so many people are happy to sell the information to you. Those who do it are predicting that as much as three-quarters of Canada's haul will be taken in women's events. That would represent a near-record ratio for a major country.

Four years ago in London, Canada was good for 18 medals. We didn't win our first (and only) gold until the eighth day of competition. By that point, the country had begun tying itself in knots. Where was Own the Podium this time around? Was this a 1976 redux?

Though we'd been the ones to stick ourselves up there, Rosie MacLennan's trampoline win let us off the hook. The bookend to that triumph – certainly in terms of a grand sense of shared national disappointment followed by accomplishment – was the women's soccer team taking an unlikely bronze.

The ratio between medals won by women and men was perfectly Canadian – 50/50 – but, inarguably, women led the way.

This was more than the numbers. Math can't define a Games. While the thing is going on, the medal table is an object of fascination. An hour after the closing ceremonies, everyone's forgotten it. Aside from professional sports wonks and autocrats, very few people really care who won how much on a national scale.

What they remember are moments and stories. "Where were you when Athlete X did Stupendous Thing Y?"

It needn't necessarily be an athlete or a win. My two most indelible memories of Sochi were Canadian coach Justin Wadsworth changing out a broken ski for a hobbled Russian competitor mid-race, and world-champion snowboarder Spencer O'Brien reduced to heaving sobs after losing her final. For different reasons, both showed us why the Olympics matter.

For Canadians at a Summer Games, those moments are necessarily amplified. We don't expect to win that often. When we do, it's a big deal.

The good people at Infostrada – the premier service in the Olympic prediction business – currently have Canada down for 16 medals in Brazil. Something in the mid- to high-teens would be par for the recent course. Infostrada was one off in London – it called for 17. (It also figured we'd win seven golds, reminding us that there is a large, unfillable hole in the system.)

Infostrada has 12 of the predicted 16 Canadian medals going to women, including particular strength in track, diving and rowing.

It's an even more tricky business trying to guess who will be the person who sticks in people's minds. Prior to the 2014 Winter Games, it's doubtful that more than a handful of Canadians had ever heard of Justine and Chloé Dufour-Lapointe. They took gold and silver in moguls, which is the sort of thing Canada does so often it's got a little rote (if not, one assumes, any easier).

What burned them into the collective consciousness was an image of the sisters holding hands on the podium while the anthem played. You could argue it a long time, but that is probably the picture they'll dig up in 25 years to explain what Canada did in Sochi. That's how stars are made – in snapshots and through a relatable humanity.

If there's someone more likely than others to manage that in Rio, it's heptathlete Brianne Theisen-Eaton. The 27-year-old from Saskatchewan has proved a reliable podium lock in recent seasons. She has that effortless charm you only seem to find in amateurs. Regardless of how much they've won, most of them have an uncanny ability to remain unspoiled.

Most importantly, the heptathlon – a mixture of seven track and field disciplines – has the feel of something very fundamentally Olympic. If the goal is higher, faster and stronger, heptathlon measures all three.

Winning this particular gold doesn't just make you the best at what you do. It qualifies you as one of the small group of people who might claim to be the best athlete alive.

If you were placing odds on which face you will associate with Rio in a month's time, Theisen-Eaton is the early favourite.

Who else might rise?

Most of the key names are already familiar. Two-time world champion Catharine Pendrel will vie for her first Olympic podium finish in mountain biking. A quartet of veteran divers – Jennifer Abel, Meaghan Benfeito, Roseline Filion and Pamela Ware – could deliver as many as four medals. If she does well, 18-year-old golfer Brooke Henderson puts herself into the discussion for Canada's most recognized sportsperson.

But one always suspects the real story will be someone not on the algorithmic radar. Those are the sorts of athletes – the ones stretching themselves beyond their capabilities – who capture people. MacLennan was one such performer.

All it takes is one great day. On a basic level, that's what the Olympics are – a 2 1/2-week-long string of opportunities for that defining moment.

Canada plans to send 313 competitors to Rio; 187 of them – 60 per cent – will be women. From now until it ends, we are at constant risk of going head-first into treacly nationalism. Up close, it's impossible not to get caught up in that feeling. As such, every one of them – man and woman – is a Canadian darling.

But only a few can be heroes. In London, the women who managed it were a small, pleasant surprise. This time around, we're counting on them to show us at our collective best.

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