Christopher Luxon, Leader of the National Party, arrives at his party's election-night celebration in Auckland on Oct. 14, 2023, after winning the general election to become New Zealand’s next prime minister.DAVID ROWLAND/Reuters
New Zealand’s centre-right National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, will form a new government with its preferred coalition party ACT, as Prime Minister Chris Hipkins conceded his Labour Party could not form a government after Saturday’s general election.
The National Party, currently in opposition, won 50 seats and the ACT Party won 11, securing a majority of just one seat in the 121 seat parliament, according to provisional results from the Electoral Commission.
“On the numbers tonight National will be in the position to lead the next government,” Luxon, a former executive who once ran Air New Zealand and entered politics just three years ago, told supporters in Auckland. “We will make this an even better country.”
Chris Bishop, National Party Campaign Chairperson, said on TVNZ political show Q+A that Luxon had already spoken with ACT leader David Seymour and senior National members would meet Saturday to discuss coalition negotiations.
While the two parties currently have the numbers to form a government, roughly 567,0000 special votes, or around 20 per cent of the vote, still have to be counted. The official result is due on Nov. 3.
Bishop said he expected National would lose at least one seat once these votes were counted.
If National and ACT do lose a seat they would not have enough seats to form a government and would need to reach an agreement with the populist party New Zealand First.
Under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional system it is very uncommon for a single party to form government, although Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government did in 2020.
But Labour has since lost support, with many New Zealanders disgruntled over the country’s long COVID-19 lockdown and the rising cost of living.
Hipkins has tried to re-engage with those voters, focusing on what he termed “bread-and-butter issues”, but was unable to gain traction in the polls.
National won over voters by promising relief for struggling middle-income New Zealanders, and to bring historically high inflation under control while reducing the country’s debt.
“The overwhelming driver was dissatisfaction with the (Labour government),” said political commentator and former National staffer Ben Thomas.
There are normally 120 seats in parliament but because the Te Pati Maori’s four seats from constituencies exceeded its share of the national popular vote, the electoral system calls for creating additional proportional seats to even out representation. This will alter the final seat tally.
Special votes have historically made slight changes to the outcome, adding seats for the left at the expense of the right-leaning bloc.
Gareth Hughes, a political commentator and former Green Party strategist, said it might not be clear until after the official vote count is returned whether National and ACT will need the support of New Zealand First to form a government.
“It’s a change election but the actual detail of the change is still to be seen,” he said.
Labour’s losses were significant, with some high-profile members of the party failing to hold onto their seats. Nanaia Mahuta, the foreign minister, lost her constituency seat and will not be returning parliament.