Nothern Ireland’s new First Minister believes a vote on unification will come within a decade

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Michelle O’Neill has been Northern Ireland’s First Minister for less than a week, but she is already taking about a referendum on unification with Ireland and believes a vote will be held within ten years.

Ms. O’Neill has been a long-standing advocate for a united Ireland and she leads nationalist party Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland. Last Saturday, she made history by becoming the first republican to be appointed first minister.

“My parents, my grandparents, never thought they would see the day when a nationalist would take up the post of first minister,” Ms. O’Neill told a group of foreign journalists in London on Thursday. “It’s hugely historic, hugely significant, and speaks volumes in terms of the change that we can see on our island.”

Her appointment reflects the changes that are under way in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein was once banned in Britain because of its ties to the Irish Republican Army, and for years British television and radio stations were not allowed to broadcast the voices of party leaders. Now, Sinn Fein holds the most seats in the Northern Irish assembly and it’s the official opposition in Ireland.

The party’s success “speaks volumes in terms of the change that we can see and that we’re part of shaping and delivering on our island,” Ms. O’Neill said. “Let’s have those conversations that we need to have around constitutional change and what it could look like in terms of health and education.”

She added that she believes “in this next decade, the people will ultimately decide the constitutional future.”

Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald, who is the Leader of the Opposition in Ireland, went further and predicted that a referendum would take place before 2030. “Change is clearly happening, it’s manifest,” Ms. McDonald told the meeting.

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement which ended decades of sectarian violence known as the Troubles created a power-sharing system of government for Northern Ireland and set up a provision for a vote on unification.

Under the agreement, Britain’s secretary of state for Northern Ireland can hold a referendum, known as a border poll, “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the U.K. and form part of a united Ireland.” A similar referendum would also be held in Ireland.

It’s not clear how the secretary of state would determine if the conditions for a vote have been met. Most opinion polls have shown that there is majority support for unification in Ireland but not in Northern Ireland.

The current Secretary of State, Chris Heaton-Harris who is a Conservative, has indicated that he doubts a border poll will be held in his lifetime. The conditions “are definitely not met at this point in time,” Mr. Heaton-Harris said this week. He also urged Ms. O’Neill to focus on providing good government instead of talking about constitutional change.

Ms. O’Neill accused Mr. Heaton-Harris of ignoring reality. “I describe the Secretary of State behaving like an ostrich, burying his head in the sand and not realizing what’s going on around him.”

Brexit has also given a boost to the unification movement, she added, because it has been unpopular in Northern Ireland.

Over all, Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016 by a narrow margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent. However, in Northern Ireland a majority of voters – 56 per cent – backed remaining in the EU

“Brexit has become a catalyst for a lot of people to question; ‘where am I best placed for the future?,’ ” Ms. O’Neill said.

Ms. McDonald said it was incumbent on the British government to set out its position on a border poll.

“The Good Friday Agreement is now 26 years old, almost, and the provision for referendum is contained within that. And I think the British government at some point has to set out what they regard as the threshold or the benchmarks for the referendum,” she said.

Both women acknowledged that they face a challenge in winning over a majority of voters.

Although Sinn Fein won the most seats of any party in the past Northern Ireland election two years ago, there is still a large block of pro-British parties in the assembly led by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The Deputy First Minister, Emma Little-Pengelly, is a member of the DUP and under the Good Friday Agreement, she shares responsibilities with Ms. O’Neill.

The assembly is also notoriously unstable. Until last Saturday, it had not convened since the 2022 election because of a boycott by the DUP over post-Brexit trading arrangements. The DUP ended its boycott two weeks ago, which cleared the way for the assembly to meet and for Ms. O’Neill and other cabinet ministers to take up their posts.

DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson has dismissed calls for a border poll. “There is nothing to suggest there has been a significant shift in public opinion in Northern Ireland,” he said last week. “All polling data points to a very strong majority in favour of remaining in the U.K.”

Ms. O’Neill and Ms. McDonald remained undeterred: “Every big social change was met with a chorus of ‘Well, that’s great, but not just now,’ ” Ms. McDonald said on Thursday.