Hogs Bounce Back After Weak Open
June Lean Hogs gap opened lower and broke down to the low of the day at 101.35. The breakdown tested support at 101.975 and the recent low at 101.175. Price reversed course and traded to the high at 103.025, closing the gap. It pulled back into the close to settle at 102.475. The cash market has been pulling back taking the indies down and putting pressure on futures. The recovery rally was led by a surging morning cutout as the Belly was showing strong demand as its price surged. The load count was heavy incentivizing bulls. The afternoon cutout pulled back but didn’t go negative as it has a tendency to do when bellies surge in the morning. The load count was heavy, and we may see a bump in the index. This could be viewed as a positive and lead to some stabilization in futures. If price can hold settlement, we could test resistance at 104.35. A failure from support at 101.975 could see price revisit the recent low and move towards support at 100.075.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 98.13 as of 04/26/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 90.88 as of 04/25/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 482,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 450,266.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 30, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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