Conservative Leader Stephen Harper at a campaign stop on Sept. 9.The Canadian Press
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CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK
By JANE TABER (@JaneTaber1)
There are just four federal ridings on Prince Edward Island - and the Liberals represent three of them. The fourth, Egmont, on the western side of the island, has been Conservative since cabinet minister Gail Shea won it in 2008.
But now she's in trouble, and Stephen Harper is in PEI this morning to try to help her out. Ms. Shea's NDP and Liberal opponents are both well-known former MLAs.
This week's Nanos poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV shows Justin Trudeau and his Liberals riding high in the region, with the NDP in second place and the Tories trailing in third.
Recently, Mr. Harper visited the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester, which borders New Brunswick. The incumbent is Conservative Scott Armstrong, who is in a tough battle with Liberal candidate Bill Casey, who used to hold the riding as a Tory and also as an independent.
This week, Mr. Trudeau was in the riding as part of his swing through the Maritimes, where he attracted more than 300 people at a rally. No surprise, too, that he was also in Egmont, taking shots at Mr. Harper, who he said still believes Mike Duffy is a Prince Edward Islander.
DAILY TRACKING FROM NANOS RESEARCH
Nik Nanos: "No breakaway movement for any major federal party."
> Conservatives: 28.6 per cent (up 0.1 from last week)
> NDP: 30.6 per cent (up 0.2 from last week)
> Liberals: 32.1 per cent (up 1.9 from last week)
> Green: 4.8 per cent (down 1.0 from last week)
> Bloc: 3.6 per cent (down 0.4 from last week)
The margin of error is 2.8 points. Read the Nanos methodology
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING
By Chris Hannay (@channay)
> Continuing from yesterday, the discontent with Conservative campaign manager Jenni Byrne has apparently boiled over and she has been sent back to Ottawa.
> If the NDP are elected, one of their first acts would be to immediately end the mission in Iraq, Thomas Mulcair says.
> Mr. Mulcair also weighed in on protecting auto-industry jobs.
> Perry Bellegarde is going to vote after all.
> The Green Party has unveiled its fully costed platform, which includes big new spending but, they vow, no deficit.
TODAY'S ELECTION SIMULATION
The Conservatives win a narrow minority of 117 seats after holding B.C. and the Prairies but losing Ontario. The NDP pick up 115 seats and the Liberals 83, with a resurgent Bloc Québécois netting 23. Try your hand out our simulator and find out what could happen if an election were held today.
Overall, the NDP currently have a 48 per cent chance of winning the most seats.
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is in Atlantic Canada, with a morning rally at PEI Potato Solutions in New Annan. In the evening, he visits the Irving Oil Refinery in Saint John, N.B.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is in Vancouver today, starting with a morning announcement at the City of Vancouver Engineering Services, an afternoon announcement in John Lawson Park, and an evening rally with local candidates.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair starts the day at a engineers training institute in Winnipeg, before continuing west to Edmonton for a rally in the evening.
UPTURN MAKES IT EASIER FOR POLOZ
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised by not surprising – he left the bank's overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent. It could be that he's more confident in the economy, or, David Parkinson writes, it could be because he wanted to stay out of the election.
WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT
"Any country – and this applies to Canada – ready to assist Syrian refugees today has to understand the difference between refugees and migrants. They also have to understand that this year's surge into Europe will be repeated. A policy cobbled together for today is one that has to be applied, quite likely, for many years. And the worst place to cobble together such a policy is in the heat of an election campaign."
– Jeffrey Simpson on the migrant crisis.
David McLaughlin (Globe and Mail): "One month in, the Conservative campaign has yet to articulate a compelling reason for how it represents change to a restless and increasingly alert electorate."
Paul Wells (Macleans): "Maybe the Conservative leader knows what we know — that this may be his last hurrah — and he's okay with that."
John Ivison (National Post): "The only cure for what ails the Conservative campaign is to give the leader a couple of days off."
LOOKAHEAD: WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK
Trans Pacific Partnership talks continue in Japan.
The next scheduled debate is on Sept. 17, hosted by The Globe and Mail in Calgary.
The election is in 39 days.