A woman wears a map of Quebec and a Fleur de Lys on her arm as she enjoys the annual St-Jean-Baptiste Day parade in Montreal, Tuesday, June 24, 2014. The leaders of Canada’s federal political parties will partake in festivies Wednesday in different parts of the province, hinting at their strategies for wooing the province’s voters.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
Thomas Mulcair, Gilles Duceppe and Justin Trudeau will walk in the same parade through downtown Montreal as part of the Fête Nationale festivities in Quebec, highlighting the three-way race building up in the province's biggest city and surrounding suburbs.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be far away from the leaders of the NDP, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberal Party, wooing voters in the eastern part of the province, where his economic and law-and-order messages have more resonance. Instead of walking on the streets with revellers, Mr. Harper will go to a hockey rink and community centre in the small town of Sainte-Marie, south of the provincial capital, for a photo op and a speech.
The different plans for Wednesday's St. Jean Baptiste festivities give a hint of the campaign for the Oct. 19 federal election.
Recent polls show the NDP, the Bloc and the Liberals are the three most competitive parties throughout the province, including in the seat-rich Montreal area. The Conservatives have strong support in the Quebec City area, slightly ahead of the NDP, which explains Mr. Harper's different travel pattern.
Pollster Jean-Marc Léger said the Conservatives "can make gains" there, but that over all, Quebec will have three- or four-way races, and the final results are "highly unpredictable."
"The electorate is fragile for all political parties at this point, so no one can take anything for granted," he said in an interview.
The Conservatives are hoping to capture ridings on the north and south shores of the St. Lawrence, mostly in and around Quebec City. They are working to keep their five seats in the province, with Mr. Harper going to Maxime Bernier's riding of Beauce on the June 24 holiday, but also ensuring a steady presence in Quebec City through monthly visits.
Infrastructure Minister Denis Lebel, who is the Conservative lieutenant in Quebec, said he hopes Quebeckers will opt for the proven leadership of Mr. Harper.
"Both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Mulcair want to pay for their promises by taking money from people's pockets," he said in an interview.
The Bloc has gained ground in Quebec since Mr. Duceppe returned as leader earlier this month. The party is polling at about the same percentage of the vote it had in the 2011 election (23 per cent), when it won four seats, and its recent rise has brought additional uncertainty to the political scene.
Mr. Duceppe is attacking the NDP at every turn, stating the Official Opposition has failed to defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa despite holding a majority of the province's 75 seats in the House.
"It's the Bloc Québécois against the bloc canadien," Mr. Duceppe said earlier this month of the campaign.
The NDP is trying to appeal to Quebeckers by stating that electing the party would give them a chance to play a major role in the next government.
"The ballot question in the next election will be, 'Who can beat and replace Stephen Harper?'" NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice said, pointing out that the sovereigntist party could not form a government.
He added that Quebeckers are well aware voting for the Bloc would hurt the NDP's chance of replacing the Conservatives.
Liberal MP Marc Garneau said he is confident Quebeckers will respond to his party's promises of an income-tax cut for middle-class workers and tax-free payments to families with children.
"Voters will be looking at the total packages presented by the different parties," he said. "For nine out of 10 families, whether they are single or married, [the Liberal plan] will mean more money than the other parties are putting into their pockets."
The most recent CROP and Léger polls in Quebec put the NDP in first place (with 36 per cent and 32 per cent support respectively), followed by the Bloc (with 25 per cent and 26 per cent support respectively). The Liberals were in third place at 22 per cent and 24 per cent, well ahead of the Conservative Party at 14 per cent and 16 per cent support respectively.