The Canadian dollar CADUSD weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors reduced bets on another oversized interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada next week and despite the greenback losing ground against some major peers.
The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3430 to the greenback, or 74.46 U.S. cents, giving back some of its gains from the previous day when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that U.S. rate hikes could slow in December.
It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies.
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“In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. “You get paid more in the U.S. (currency).”
Canadian money markets offer lower rates than in the United States, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this cycle to a higher endpoint than the Bank of Canada.
Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell’s comments, money market data showed.
A slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect the larger move.
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Flows related to Royal Bank of Canada’s purchase of HSBC’s business in Canada could also be weighing on the loonie, Chandler said.
The deal was announced on Tuesday at a purchase price of C$13.5 billion ($10 billion) in cash.
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 49.6 in November from 48.8 in October. It has been below the 50 level that marks contraction in the sector since August.
The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.