Slowdown in do-it-yourself home projects weakens lumber markets

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A slowdown in home repair and remodelling projects has weakened lumber markets, the latest setback for Canadian sawmills struggling financially with depressed lumber prices.

Lower-than-expected housing starts in Canada and the United States have also eroded lumber demand.

On the supply side, lumber producers in British Columbia that have coped for years with decreased access to timber in the province will be facing even tighter constraints. “Everybody is holding their breath a bit because of this kind of perfect storm,” Linda Coady, president of the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI), said in an interview.

In the summer of 2020, consumers stuck at home during the COVID-19 pandemic started a do-it-yourself boom, snapping up construction materials for decks, fences and home renovations, despite rising retail prices for lumber.

But with household budgets increasingly reallocated to travel, restaurants and sporting events over the past couple of years, that shift in spending has translated into challenging times for the lumber industry, including sawmills that have higher operating costs in B.C.

Many sawmills in B.C., which is Canada’s largest lumber-producing province, have been running recently at below break-even levels.

The impact of lower lumber prices already has been severely felt at a smaller company, Surrey, B.C.-based Teal-Jones Group, which is owned by two brothers, Dick and Tom Jones. The private company’s roots date back to 1946, when their father, Jack, opened a cedar roofing mill in New Westminster, B.C.

Last month, Teal-Jones filed for bankruptcy protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act.

Four years ago, the company’s logging operations at Fairy Creek on Vancouver Island began attracting protesters who are trying to preserve old-growth trees. A report by PricewaterhouseCoopers Inc., filed in B.C. Supreme Court on April 24, said Teal-Jones has incurred more than $40-million in costs in its efforts to resolve “a protracted public demonstration of logging activity.”

The assets held by Teal-Jones include its sawmill operations in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey.

Faced with low lumber prices and high debt loads, Teal-Jones will be seeking to restructure and salvage its business.

Larger producers will be able to withstand the slump in lumber prices, but smaller companies will find it more difficult, said Ric Slaco, an industry consultant and former chief forester at Burnaby, B.C.-based Interfor Corp.

“A couple of years ago, when companies were making a pile of money, some of them might have gone off and said, ‘Hey, we’re going to spend a pile of money and buy this and buy that.’ But the next thing you know, lumber prices went down and debt servicing has gone up because interest rates went up,” Mr. Slaco said in an interview.

Mortgage rates that began rising in March of 2022 have crimped the discretionary income that homeowners have available for renovation work.

Once interest rates fall to lower levels, that should help speed up the pace of construction and once again help create higher demand for lumber, Mr. Slaco said.

For consumers who remain keen to renovate this spring, there has been price relief on the retail level. A widely used two-by-four framing wall stud that’s almost eight-feet long sold for about $4 at some Canadian retail outlets last week, down from $10.50 two years ago.

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. said elevated mortgage rates have tempered spending in the do-it-yourself market.

West Fraser’s share price has slipped 8 per cent over the past two years, while the stock prices of Canfor Corp. and Interfor have each tumbled 45 per cent. West Fraser and Canfor are based in Vancouver, while Interfor’s head office is in Burnaby, B.C.

Tree harvesting in B.C. peaked at nearly 90 million cubic metres in 1987, long before the provincial government’s recent initiatives, which include more harvesting rights for First Nations.

Tree harvesting has dropped 42 per cent in recent years, from 60 million cubic metres in 2018 to 35 million cubic metres last year. The B.C. government forecasts that harvesting could flatten at 32 million cubic metres annually from the current fiscal year until 2026-2027.

A shortage of logs to process means that the gap between B.C.’s annual allowable cut and the actual harvest has been widening. Actual tree harvesting accounted for only 58 per cent of what the provincial government allowed for logging last year, said COFI chief economist Kurt Niquidet.

Canfor has been “working toward a smaller but stronger presence in British Columbia,” Canfor chief executive officer Don Kayne said during a conference call last week with industry analysts.

Cash prices – what sawmills charge wholesalers were at – US$383 last week for 1,000 board feet of two-by-fours made from Western spruce, pine and fir, according to Madison’s Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver-based industry newsletter. That pricing level is down 60 per cent compared with two years earlier.

Most of the industry’s plants that have lower operating costs are located in the U.S. South, which produce southern yellow pine (SYP).

Teal-Jones announced the start of construction of a new sawmill in Louisiana in July, 2022, when the cash price for SYP two-by-fours reached about US$750 for 1,000 board feet. The SYP cash price has declined 55 per cent since then, hovering at US$330 for 1,000 board feet last week, data collected by Madison’s show.

That Louisiana sawmill is scheduled to open in July, but Teal-Jones recently placed its 57-per-cent stake in the plant up for sale.

Last year, Teal-Jones produced 248 million board feet of lumber in Canada, according to consulting firm Forest Economic Advisors (FEA).

By contrast, Canada’s largest producer is West Fraser, which had output of nearly 2.7 billion board feet last year, while Canfor’s production ranked second at about 2.2 billion board feet, FEA said.

West Fraser, Canfor and Interfor have diversified over the years into the U.S.

Last week, Interfor announced that it will reduce its North American lumber production by 10 per cent from May to September, “in response to persistently weak market conditions.”

In 2023, for the second consecutive year, West Fraser’s annual lumber production in the U.S. surpassed its output in Canada.

Lumber production across Canada fell 6 per cent last year, according to a study by Global Consulting Alliance, whose members include a Vancouver-based consulting firm headed by Russ Taylor. In B.C., lumber output dropped 12.6 per cent last year.

Over the past decade, lumber capacity has soared in the U.S. South while production plunged in B.C. amid timber supply constraints in the province.

The sector in B.C. felt the impact of the mountain pine beetle, which decimated the province’s Interior for a dozen years, beginning in 1999. B.C. wildfires – especially those in 2017, 2018 and 2023 – further depleted supplies of wood fibre.

Three B.C. sawmills have closed in 2024 while numerous mills have scaled back to operate on one shift, Global Consulting Alliance said in its recent study.

Sawmills operating in the U.S., including those owned by companies with head offices in Canada, are exempt from paying U.S. duties on softwood lumber.

But Canadian lumber shipments to the U.S. continue to be hit with softwood duties levied by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The 2006 Canada-U.S. softwood agreement expired in October, 2015, with no replacement. In the latest round of the trade dispute, producers in Canada have been paying U.S. lumber duties since 2017.

Industry analysts expect U.S. duty rates, which are slated to rise by August to nearly 14 per cent from the current 8.05 per cent, will increase again next year.