In the next federal election, perhaps in 2015, Bob Rae will have been gone from being the NDP premier of Ontario for two decades. By that time, a large swath of the Canadian voting public, especially those under 40, will remember nothing of those tumultuous times. Outside Ontario, chances are that voters would know nothing about those years, just as Ontarians wouldn't have clear opinions about Mike Harcourt's years as premier of B.C. or Don Getty's as premier of Alberta.
Of course, the Harper Conservatives will try to remind people of Mr. Rae's time as premier and paint it with the blackest of colours. That's how the Conservatives do politics: Tear down opposition leaders. The Conservative campaign against Mr. Rae has already begun. It will continue through the next election because, barring unexpected developments, Mr. Rae will lead the Liberals in that campaign.
Mr. Rae is the "interim" Liberal leader. In theory, the leadership race is supposed to start late next winter; in practice, it has begun with only one candidate, Mr. Rae. There is, frankly, no one else. If there were, Mr. Rae could leave.
Liberals can dream of Justin Trudeau, except he has ruled out a leadership bid. They can think of New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, who might be ready for prime time some years from now. They can ponder Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty. But the more they ponder, the more they'll realize that the last man standing will be Bob Rae.
Twice, the Liberal Party passed over Mr. Rae – once for Stéphane Dion, once for Michael Ignatieff. Mr. Rae was the most experienced, the best speaker, the more natural politician – yet, he lost twice.
Yes, his time as NDP premier counted against him with some Liberals, either because they couldn't forget his lacerating attacks on their party before he switched sides, or because they feared those years would be used against him to telling effect.
There were other, deeper reasons. Mr. Rae never gave the Liberals a clear enough narrative why he wanted to be leader and where he wanted to go. He offered the party himself and his talents, and they weren't enough.
When dealing with his time as NDP premier, Mr. Rae can't find the right narrative even now. Being a proud man, he defends those years, talking correctly about the difficulties of the recession Ontario faced, the challenges he overcame, the progress he made – although the generalized historical view is that of a buffeted and unsuccessful government. Ontarians apparently thought so. They decisively dumped the NDP at the first opportunity.
Having poured his reflections into books and speeches, Mr. Rae left the NDP. Here's where the narrative failed. In appealing to Liberals for their votes, he never explained why he and the Liberal Party could achieve objectives (other than taking power) that the NDP couldn't.
Mr. Rae never told Canadians why liberalism trumped social democracy, or why the Liberals reflected better than the NDP what he came to believe in. Now, the party desperately needs that narrative to bring at least some of those former Liberals back.
Mr. Rae can seek the leadership again as a way of personal vindication: At his age, and with his innate love of politics, it's hard to imagine him preferring a law firm to leading the Liberal Party. Politics was injected into his blood early – first at university, then as a young NDP MP. It still courses in his veins. He's a man of many interests beyond family, but one trumps all: politics.
Beleaguered Liberals could have fallen into factional infighting, as shattered parties often do. Under Mr. Rae, harmony has reigned in caucus, fundraising has picked up, media exposure has been won, and Mr. Rae has earned the highest badge of partisan honour: personal attacks from the Conservatives.
He pledged when becoming "interim" leader not to seek the job thereafter. A way will be found around that inconvenient, but not insuperable, impediment.