Brianne Gardner, senior wealth advisor and co-founder of Velocity Investment Partners at Raymond James Ltd. in Vancouver.The Globe and Mail
Money manager Brianne Gardner expects stock markets to finish strong this year and maintain their momentum well into 2025, driven by rising corporate profits and economic growth in the U.S.
“The U.S. election results removed a lot of key uncertainties and, although there are still a few questions regarding policies, we believe markets can now refocus on economic fundamentals,” says Ms. Gardner, senior wealth adviser and co-founder of Velocity Investment Partners at Raymond James Ltd. in Vancouver, who oversees about $225-million in assets.
She expects Canada’s economy to be more challenged in the year ahead. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threat this week to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico won’t help.
“As a starting point, any Canadian company that relies on exporting products to the U.S. will be scrutinized,” she says. That includes many industrial companies and energy exporters.
Her team had already reduced its portfolio’s exposure to Canadian stocks and increased its U.S. holdings based on the belief that economic growth south of the border will be stronger in the months ahead.
Ms. Gardner is a relatively active money manager, having bought and sold – and bought back – various stocks over the years, such as Amazon.com Inc. AMZN-Q, Nvidia Corp. NVDA-Q, Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU-Q and Telus Corp. T-T.
She has held some stocks for several years, including Apple Inc. AAPL-Q, Microsoft Corp. MSFT-Q and Royal Bank of Canada RY-T, trimming them occasionally when valuations rise.
“Our goal is to protect the profits we’ve generated for our high-net-worth clients, and we believe active management is the key to managing that risk,” she says.
The strategy has helped Ms. Gardner and her team generate double-digit returns in recent years. The firm’s growth-focused portfolio (about 80-per-cent equities and 20-per-cent fixed income) has returned 19 per cent year-to-date and 29.5 per cent in the past 12 months. Its three-year annualized return is 17.8 per cent. All data are based on total returns, net of fees, as of Nov. 12.
Her top five holdings today include Microsoft (6.1 per cent), Apple (5.9 per cent), Capital Power Corp. CPX-T (3.9 per cent), RBC (3.7 per cent) and Amazon (3.3 per cent).
The Globe and Mail spoke with Ms. Gardner recently about what she’s been buying and selling:
Name three stocks you own today and why.
We bought Merck & Co. MRK-N, the big U.S. pharmaceutical company, in September, 2021, at US$76 a share. We trimmed it a couple of times since then, including in November, 2022, at US$99 and July this year at US$128. We’ve also been adding some recently at around US$98.
We like the stock, specifically its flagship oncology drug, Keytruda, which has continued to see strong sales. Earlier this year, the company received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its hypertension medicine, Winrevair, which has excellent growth prospects. Yes, there are risks with competition, but with the stock’s recent sell-off, we see a potential 20- to 25-per-cent upside from here.
Costco Wholesale Corp. COST-Q, the membership-only warehouse club retail chain, is a stock we bought in June, 2022, at US$298 a share and again in April, 2023, at US$560. The stock is currently trading around US$920. We’ve managed our position actively over the years, trimming and adding when we see opportunities.
Costco has benefited significantly in recent years from consumers looking to save money on groceries and other household goods. Sales have been rising steadily over the past year. The company’s membership model is its backbone. It’s also expanding worldwide, including adding more stores in China. We continue to hold this stock but would wait for a pullback before adding more.
Dollarama Inc. DOL-T is a stock we bought in December last year at $93 and have hung on to our position since. The stock has increased by more than 50 per cent in the past year. Similar to Costco, Dollarama is benefiting from consumers tightening their belts.
The company has also been expanding and making impressive strides in places such as Latin America. As it grows, the company has improved its operating margins because of supply chain efficiencies. It’s able to deliver low-cost, well-curated products, which has helped it gain market share. It’s also a type of business that can grow even in a challenging economy.
Dollarama has a strong balance sheet, manageable debt, and a stable and growing dividend. We have a lot of confidence in the stock and see it as a long-term hold. We’re looking for a pullback from current levels before adding more to our portfolios.
Name a stock you’ve sold recently.
We bought CI Gold Bullion Fund ETF VALT-T in October, 2023, when gold was trading around US$1,900 an ounce. We trimmed the position by half in October when gold was about US$2,700 an ounce. We felt the gold rally might take a breather after such a strong run. There were concerns about how the U.S. election results might affect gold prices.
The decision to trim was based largely on the possible strengthening of the U.S. dollar and shifting expectations around interest-rate cuts that would put short-term pressure on gold prices.
As many investors know, gold benefits when interest rates drop. So, the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans to cut rates in the coming months could further add to the momentum.
We’re considering adding back to our position if the price of gold falls to US$2,500 an ounce. The outlook for gold remains positive because of monetary conditions loosening, increased money supply and potential inflationary pressures from Republican policies [in the U.S.], so it’s something we’re watching closely.
This interview has been edited and condensed.