Sugar Settles Higher on Strength in Gasoline Prices

Rich Asplund - Barchart - Mon Mar 18, 1:45PM CDT

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK24) on Monday closed up +0.04 (+0.18%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK24) closed up +4.60 (+0.74%).

Sugar prices on Monday rallied to 2-week highs due to the strength of gasoline prices. April gasoline (RBJ24) on Monday jumped to a 6-month high, which boosted ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production instead of sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies.

Gains in sugar were limited on Monday due to weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL). The real on Monday dropped to a 4-1/2 month low against the dollar, encouraging export selling from Brazil's sugar producers.

On the bearish side for sugar, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association last Wednesday raised its forecast for India's sugarcane production in the 2023-24 marketing year (that began on Oct 1) by +2.9% to 34 MMT from January's forecast of 33.05 MMT. Higher sugarcane production likely means higher refined sugar production, depending on how much of that sugarcane is converted into ethanol.

Higher sugar production in Brazil is bearish for sugar prices. Unica reported last Tuesday that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of February was 16,000 MT, up from zero in the year-earlier period. Also, Brazilian sugar output so far in the 2023-24 marketing year rose +26% y/y to 42.181 MMT. Unica also said it expects 28 mills in the Center-South region to resume production in the first half of March after their off-season pause, which would be more than the year-earlier figure of 10 reopening mills in that period.

Reduced sugar production in India is a bullish factor. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reported on Mar 4 that India's 2023/24 sugar output from Oct through Feb fell -1.4% y/y to 25.5 MMT. The 2023 (Jun-Sep) monsoon rain was 6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years. In October, India extended restrictions on sugar exports from Oct 31 until further notice in an attempt to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to Sep 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. India is the second-largest sugar producer in the world.

Reduced Thai sugar production is bullish for sugar prices after the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected on Feb 6 that Thailand's 2023/24 sugar production would fall by -32% y/y to a 17-year low of 7.5 MMT due to a severe drought. Rainfall in Thailand has been below the same period last year, and the current El Nino weather system could continue to depress rainfall in Thailand. Sugar millers in Thailand are reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane this year in at least 13 years. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.

Sugar prices are seeing support from this year's El Nino weather event. An El Nino weather pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting sugar crop production. The last time El Nino brought dryness to sugar crops in Asia was in 2015 and 2016, which caused prices to soar.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on Nov 23, projected that global 2023/24 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 183.461 MMT and that global 2023/24 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 178.431 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2023/24 global sugar ending stocks would fall -13.3% y/y to a 13-year low of 33.681 MMT. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Feb 28 raised its 2023/24 global sugar deficit estimate to -689,000 MT from a November estimate of -335,000 MT.

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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.