Economic Concerns Drive Crude Prices Lower

Rich Asplund - Barchart - Thu Apr 20, 2023

May WTI crude oil (CLK23) this morning is down -1.90 (-2.40%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBJ23) is down -7.11 (-2.69%). May Nymex natural gas (NGK23) is down -0.073 (-3.29%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are retreating, with crude posting a 2-1/2 week low and gasoline dropping to a 1-month low. Crude oil prices are lower on concern that a slow down of the U.S. economy will curb energy demand after today's U.S. economic reports were weaker than expected.

Nat-gas prices are falling today after U.S. weekly nat-gas inventories rose more than expected. The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories rose +75 bcf, above expectations of +70 bcf. That pushed total U.S. nat-gas stockpiles to 1.930 tcf, +20.5% above the 5-year average for this time of year.

Today's U.S. economic reports were weaker than expected, pointing to a slowdown in the economy that is bearish for energy demand and crude prices. Weekly continuing claims rose +61,000 to a 16-month high of 1.865 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.825 million. Also, the Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell -8.1 to a nearly 3-year low of -31.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.3. In addition, Mar leading indicators fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 2-3/4 years.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices. The crack spread today fell to a 2-month low, discouraging refiner from purchasing crude to refine into gasoline and distillates.

Signs of weakness in global diesel demand signal an economic slowdown that is bearish for crude prices. According to data tracked by China's Ministry of Transport, the number of trucks running on Chinese highways fell -8% w/w in the week ended April 9. Also, U.S. diesel demand is on track to contract -2% this year, according to S&P Global, which would be the biggest drop in U.S. diesel demand in 7 years, not counting the 2020 pandemic year.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -17% w/w to 95.6 million bbl in the week ended April 14.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is bullish for prices. China's General Administration of Customs reported last Thursday that China's Mar crude imports rose +16% m/m to 52.31 MMT (12.37 million bpd), the highest level since June 2020. China's crude imports year-to-date are up +6.7% y/y at 136.369 MMT.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a "precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market." OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 14 were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 14 was unchanged w/w at 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 14 fell by -2 rigs to a nearly 10-month low of 588 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.