Mexico is expected to significantly increase its corn imports during the upcoming 2024-2025 marketing year, according to a recent report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This surge in imports comes amid rising domestic demand for corn, driven by several key factors.

The USDA's FAS forecasts a 5% year-over-year increase in Mexican corn imports, reaching 22 million tons. This upswing is necessary to meet the Mexican government's projections for a growing demand in starch and animal feed production.

It's important to note that Mexico already holds the title of the world's second-largest grain importer, trailing only China. This trend is likely to continue as relatively lower corn prices compared to the previous year incentivize purchases. Additionally, growing demand from livestock producers and processors is putting further strain on domestic corn supplies.

Mexico relies heavily on U.S. corn to meet its growing demand, as its domestic use of corn has more than doubled over the past decade. The U.S. is expected to remain the primary source for Mexico's corn imports, traditionally supplying over 85% of their needs.

While imports are expected to rise, Mexico's domestic corn production is also forecast to increase in the upcoming marketing year. The USDA anticipates a 7% jump in production to 25 million metric tons, driven by an expansion in planted area and reduced crop abandonment rates. This optimism stems from expectations of a return to average rainfall and moisture levels following a period of exceptional drought. Increased soil moisture is likely to incentivize Mexican farmers to plant more corn, potentially easing some pressure on imports.

Notably, Mexico is also exploring alternatives to importing U.S. corn for its corn production. Researchers in Mexico are making progress on a project aimed at developing enough non-genetically modified seed varieties that can be grown in Mexico to replace a significant portion of the 18 million metric tons of corn imported from the U.S.

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