***Market Wrap-up Sept 29
Top Headlines:
*Feds Mester: A recession will not stop the Fed from hiking rates
*Feds Bullard: Inflation will begin to fall in 2023, but how quickly is unknown
*Feds Bullard: It is possible that the United States will experience a recession as the Fed reduces inflation, but this is not my base case
SP500 concluded an ugly session -2.10% taking its YTD to -23.74%
Nasdaq -2.78% and -31.73% YTD
Russell 2000 -2.85% to -25.37% YTD
Stocks: Bullard of the St Louis Fed spoke today, and he didn’t disappoint in his “hawkish” ways. Also, I didn’t like what the Feds Mester said today regarding recession not stopping the Fed from raising rates. That didn’t sound constructive for markets to me. However, we did catch a small bid on the close and . I think tomorrow will be all about the inflation data (PCE) due out at 7:30 AM CST .
Bonds: the cat calls for the bond market are growing louder. Many (including me) think we’re at “value” levels. TOMORROW: We’ll get a look at the PCE Index (prior 6.3% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M) and Core PCE exp at 4.7%), the Fed favorite inflation gauge. We’ll see how that dictates price action tomorrow. We're focused on the long end of the curve, as we think it soon begins to price in an oncoming recession in the United States.
Gold: finished flat on the session, but looks constructive here so long as it holds the recent lows down at 1622. Carrying a modest Gold long position, but not advising buying here as it remains BEARISH trend. 1682-1720 near-term upside target.
Oil: made an attempt at 83.00, and finished 81.54 or down -0.74% on the day. Oil remains bearish trend, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt for some more near-term upside to 84-85.00. Top side channel resistance comes in at 88.00. OPEC+ meets next week, where we're hearing that Russia is recommending a 1MM BBL/day cut to production.
I shorted some more Euro's today, as it remains a core short position - we’ve gone 2/2 with this trade over July and August, lets see how we do with this one. If we’re higher tomorrow, like I said 97.80-99.20 is the Sell Zone, I’ll look to add.
Good luck out there!
John Caruso
RJO Futures
312-373-5286
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On the date of publication, John Caruso did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
