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Oracle Smashes Analyst Expectations, How Good Can It Get?

MarketBeat - Tue Mar 12, 12:54PM CDT

19 January 2023, Dubai, UAE: Oracle sign at the office building in Dubai Internet City area

You can't say it wasn't starting to look likely. With a run of higher highs and higher lows in Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) since the end of last year, there was a clear sense of momentum building on the bid. The allure of a strong earnings report for the company's fiscal Q3 was just too much for a lot of investors, and Oracle shares had no problem gaining nearly 20% in the timeframe.

The results in last night's report have more than justified that optimism and then some. Earnings per share topped analyst expectations, which is always a good start, and helped mask the slight miss in forecasted revenue for the quarter. Instead of the $13.3 billion that analysts had been looking for, Oracle delivered $13.28 billion. It also helped that the company's forward guidance for the current quarter was hot, with management now looking for earnings per share to land between $1.62 to $1.66, the upside ahead of the $1.64 analysts forecast. 

Leadership's Bullish Outlook

Oracle's CEO, Safra Catz, pointed out that significant new cloud infrastructure contracts in Q3 propelled Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations to over $80 billion—a historic high. She anticipates sustained demand for cloud infrastructure capacity due to the overwhelming interest in Oracle's Gen2 AI infrastructure despite rapid cloud data center expansion. She also touched on the company's goal of hitting $65 billion in sales by their fiscal 2026, saying that "some of these goals might prove to be too conservative given our momentum." 

The 15% pop in Monday's after-hours session was a testament to the strength of the report, and investors should be excited. While the stock had undoubtedly seen gains in recent weeks, they had paled against some of their tech peers. Take NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), for example, with its 100% run from the first week of January through last Friday, or Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) with a 30% run over the same time period. When compared to Oracle's 12%, you get a sense of how much of a laggard it's been. 

But this is good news for those on the sidelines thinking about getting involved. When a stock that has been, comparatively speaking, hanging back in the shadows suddenly bursts into the open with a rock-solid report, it screams catchup play. Especially when the broader market sentiment is in its favor, and with inflation readings continuing to show signs of cooling, bolstering the argument for a cut to interest rates by the Fed, you almost couldn't ask for a more tech stock-friendly environment right now. 

What Upside Remains?

Using MarketBeat's Analyst Forecast tool, we can see that Oracle shares carry a street-high price target of $150. Even with shares topping $130 in last night's after-hours session, that's still pointing to an additional upside of some 15%, and we can almost certainly expect refreshed price targets this week in the wake of last night's report. 

In the meantime, the stock is due to open today at a fresh all time high, something that can be considered super bullish, well north of the $127 it topped out at last year. Assuming it manages to do so, and hold onto those gains, it will mark a new chapter for Oracle as they finally join so many of their tech peers who've been at all-time highs now for some months. 

Oracle has traditionally traded a bit slower and more lethargic than the rest, and indeed, investors might well have been getting frustrated with the stock's inability to kick on past previous highs. For context, before last night's report, Oracle shares were trading at the same levels as last June, having only arrested a multi-month selloff in January. But that's all looking likely to be quickly forgotten today as a new Oracle emerges that's looking more and more comfortable trading at all-time highs.   

The article "Oracle Smashes Analyst Expectations, How Good Can It Get?" first appeared on MarketBeat.

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