What happened
Shares of heavy industrial crane builder Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW) are stretching higher on Tuesday morning, rising 16% through 10:45 a.m. ET after absolutely crushing on earnings while markets slept last night.
Heading into the fourth quarter of 2022, analysts had forecast Manitowoc might earn only $0.26 per share (adjusted for one-time items) on sales of $565.8 million. But in fact, Manitowoc came close to tripling the earnings estimate -- $0.74 per share -- on sales of $621.6 million.
So what
Those sales were up 24.9% year over year by the way, far exceeding analyst expectations despite having to contend with unfavorable currency exchange rates. Full-year sales passed $2 billion, up 18.2%.
But not all the news was good.
Manitowoc's $0.74-per-share profit, as already noted, was adjusted for one-time items. When calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), quarterly earnings were significantly worse -- indeed, Manitowoc actually lost $4.10 per share for the quarter once noncash asset impairment charges are deducted. And that erased all the profits the company had earned earlier in the year, leaving Manitowoc with a loss of $3.51 per share for all of 2022.
Now what
Will 2023 be kinder to Manitowoc? That's hard to say.
Management anticipates full-year sales of from $2 billion to $2.1 billion -- which would be basically flat against 2022. As for earnings, Manitowoc thinks it will earn an adjusted profit of anywhere from $0.35 per share to $1.15 per share -- but won't say what its GAAP earnings number might look like.
True, at the high end of that range, Manitowoc's earnings would edge out 2022's $1.06-per-share adjusted profit, and that prospect -- plus the fact of the earnings beat -- may help to explain investors' optimism today. But at the midpoint of guidance, a $0.75-per-share adjusted profit would mean that earnings will fall 29% this year.
I'm not sure that part of Manitowoc's earnings report has sunk in for investors just yet. When it does, I fear that today's surge in stock price could quickly collapse.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
