Oct Nymex natural gas (NGV20) this morning is down -0.048 (-1.77%).

Oct nat-gas prices this morning fell back from a 9-month high and moved lower on updated weather forecasts that call for cooler U.S. temperatures, which should reduce nat-gas demand from utilities to power air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group today said that more seasonable temperatures are forecast for U.S. states east of the Rockies during Sep 2-11, a cooler outlook then was previously forecast. However, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center recently forecast that there will be above-normal temperatures across the U.S. from August through October. Temperatures during July were the hottest in 20 years, according to BNEF.

Oct nat-gas early this morning extended Thursday's rally up to a new 9-month high before falling back after Hurricane Laura did less damage to LNG export installations along the Gulf Coast than was feared, which should allow nat-gas exports to resume in a few days.

U.S. nat-gas production continues to be weak, which is supportive of nat-gas prices. U.S. lower-48 state dry gas production today was down -7.8% y/y at 84.744 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg data.

Thursday's weekly EIA report showed that gas inventories rose +45 bcf last week to 3,420 bcf, which was slightly above the consensus of +44 bcf but below the 5-year average of +49 bcf. The report left total U.S. nat-gas supplies at 3,420 bcf in the week ended Aug 21, down from the 2-3/4 year high of 3,732 bcf posted in the week of Nov 8. Inventories are up +19.7% y/y and are +14.7% above the 5-year average.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Aug 21 fell by -1 rig to 69 rigs, just above the record low of 68 rigs posted in the week ended July 24 (data since 1987).