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Transunion(TRU-N)
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Why TransUnion Stock Sold Off 20% on Tuesday

Motley Fool - Tue Oct 24, 2023

TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) is one of the three main credit bureaus that prepare the credit scores that determine whether you will -- or won't -- get that new credit card you applied for. TransUnion is having trouble getting "credit" from its own shareholders this morning, however. Its shares are being sold off after the company missed analyst predictions for its third-quarter sales and earnings.

Heading into the quarter, Wall Street analysts had forecast TransUnion would earn $0.94 per share (adjusted for one-time items) on sales of $982 million. In fact, TransUnion says its adjusted earnings were only $0.91 per share, and sales were $969 million.

As of 10 a.m. ET, TransUnion stock is down 19.7%.

All's not well in the United Kingdom

The news wasn't all bad. TransUnion actually did manage to grow its revenue 3% year over year, with U.S. revenue growth of 2% and international growth at 12%. But the news wasn't all good, either.

In addition to missing earnings estimates, TransUnion didn't earn anything at all. Although its adjusted profit for the quarter was $0.91, the company's profit when calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was actually a loss of $2.07 per share. Management ascribed this loss to a $495 million "non-cash goodwill impairment expense for our United Kingdom reporting unit," which is struggling in an economy where "recovery will take longer, and will be at a slower pace, than previously expected."

What's next for TransUnion

TransUnion management further warned that this weakness in the U.K. in particular, combined with overall global "weakening lending and marketing activity" will affect its results in both the short and midterm. Fourth-quarter revenue is now expected to range from only $917 million to $932 million. (Wall Street was hoping for $975 million.) Adjusted profits are expected to range from $0.67 to $0.72 per share. (Wall Street wants $0.98.) And actual GAAP earnings, while positive, will be even weaker than that -- anywhere from $0.08 to $0.18 per share.

This all adds up to a 2023 forecast of about $3.8 billion in sales and $3.26 per share in adjusted earnings -- both short of analyst estimates. Worst of all, TransUnion will almost certainly report a full-year loss of at least $1.34 per share.

No wonder investors are upset.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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