Ottawa's mayoral race heads into the home stretch as a close contest between two front-runners with ambitious platforms and an incumbent who clings to his image as a simple man.
After six years in office, Mayor Bob Chiarelli, 65, is trailing a former city councillor and a millionaire with no political experience.
His challengers' views are at opposite ends of the political spectrum. One plans to improve city services, while the other casts himself an anti-tax crusader.
Alex Munter, who became an advocate for same-sex marriage after he left city council in 2003, is campaigning on an environment platform, with a pledge to make Ottawa "the greenest city in Canada." Mr. Munter, 38, launched a community newspaper, the Kanata Kourier, when he was only 14 (although he sold it when he went to university) and has been involved in politics for just about as long.
Larry O'Brien, 57, who started a multimillion-dollar technology business with $36, vowed to freeze property taxes and ban panhandling on city streets. Mr. O'Brien is now chairman of the board of directors of CALIAN Technologies Ltd., and often plays up his business knowledge to stave off attacks against his lack of political experience.
In the final days before Monday's election, polls indicate Mr. O'Brien and Mr. Munter are neck-and-neck. Both have slowed their attacks on the mayor to redirect their jabs and punches against each other -- another sign of Mr. Chiarelli's troubles.
"Why would they spend energy taking on somebody who they see as irrelevant?" said Katherine Graham, dean of the faculty of public affairs and management at Carleton University. "They are talking around him."
The mayor was a Liberal member of the Ontario Legislature throughout the 1990s, before being elected to the regional chair of Ottawa-Carleton in 1997. He presided over the amalgamation of the city of Ottawa and its surrounding municipalities in 2000, and became mayor of the new city.
His fall in popularity was precipitated in part by a backlash against property tax increases of 2.9, 3.9 and 3.9 per cent over the past three years, one pollster said.
The same issue could also harm Mr. Munter, who promised no increases above the rate of inflation, but would not commit to a tax freeze, said Bruce Anderson, CEO of Decima Research.
"His success is somewhat dented in the last while by the question of whether or not he's the right guy if you care more than anything else about taxes," Mr. Anderson said. "O'Brien has been gathering some momentum."
Monday's vote will also be a referendum on a proposed $880-million electric train line linking the downtown core with the rapidly developing areas to the south of the city.
The light-rail plan was to be Mr. Chiarelli's flagship project. He counted on it to demonstrate that he could obtain federal and provincial funding for this and other projects.
But last month, Treasury Board President John Baird inserted the federal government in local politics when he delayed handing over the federal government's $200-million share until after the Nov. 13 vote.
Mr. Baird also disclosed a key element of the contract with a consortium led by Siemens Canada -- a deal kept secret by the parties involved.
He revealed the deadline to secure funding without penalty is Dec. 15, not Oct. 15 as the mayor had indicated. This emboldened Mr. Chiarelli's two opponents, who accused the mayor of trying to ram the light-rail project through before the municipal election.
Both Mr. Munter and Mr. O'Brien vowed to either drastically alter or cancel it altogether.
The mayor has launched a TV ad campaign, in which he played up his image as a simple man. "I'm not flashy but I share your values," he told viewers, facing the cameras against a homey setting.
The spot drew a lukewarm response. But Mr. Anderson of Decima Research is not ready to discount the mayor just yet.
"It is turning into a horse race. I don't think it's possible to call this one at this point."