Think of it as the Elephant in the Province.
It's out there. It hasn't been much talked about up to this point. But very soon it could play a major role in deciding the Oct. 10 Ontario provincial election.
This particular elephant is the undecided voter, pegged at a mere 5 per cent of the voting population in a poll that now seems decades old.
After Monday's ground-shifting, hole-digging tap dance by Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory over school funding, the measure of the undecided may be shifting by the hour.
In a tight race, that often-forgotten vote could: (1) put the Dalton McGuinty Liberal government right back into office, perhaps even with another majority; (2) savage or even salvage the political future of John Tory; or (3) hand Howard Hampton's New Democratic Party the balance of power in an election that, in the end, may turn out to be more about disappointment than opportunity.
When Brad James, the NDP candidate for the Southwestern Ontario riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London, looks at what has happened so far in this curious campaign, he can only smile.
"I think both the Liberals and Tories are going to have to start running a second bus," he says, "just to carry all the asterisks that go with their campaign promises."
As for his own party, he thinks another bus could be added as well, but this one to carry the media that are starting to show a little more interest in Howard Hampton and what he has been saying.
Southwestern Ontario is in flux - some say it is here where the election will be decided. Two struggling sectors are found in this part of the province, manufacturing and agriculture, and often the two are directly connected, with many farm families relying on off-farm factory work to keep the agricultural operation going.
St. Thomas itself is dealing with job losses, something the city has known well in the past. It was once known as one of the country's great railway centres, but is now more remembered as the place where, on Sept. 15, 1885, the star of Barnum & Bailey's circus, Jumbo the Elephant, was struck and killed by a Grand Trunk locomotive.
According to legend, the world's largest elephant died trying to shoo a much smaller elephant named Tom Thumb off the tracks. Jumbo's statue at the edge of town is now a main tourist attraction.
The riding that includes this small city is filled with farms, but also with plants connected to the auto industry. They build big trucks here. There is a Ford plant that produces the Crown Victoria, and luxury cars don't ride particularly well in tough times.
"There has been an erosion of manufacturing jobs all over Ontario," says James, "and the losses in Southwestern Ontario have been huge."
The 46-year-old union worker - son of Ken James, who served two terms as a Conservative member of Parliament in the Brian Mulroney government - is not likely to take this riding from the Liberals. It is held by Labour Minister Steve Peters, who James freely admits remains personally very popular in the riding.
But while Peters may indeed win, it cannot be said this election is merely a repeat of the last.
Last time out, the NDP soft vote flew to the Liberals in the hopes of putting an end to the Mike Harris-Ernie Eves years of Conservative cutbacks.
"But now," James says, "there is a growing feeling of disappointment in the McGuinty government - a feeling that Dalton McGuinty let people down."
Up until the last two weeks, the privately spoken concern of the left in this area was that the riding might even go to Tory candidate Bill Fehr.
"Now," says James, "that fear isn't there. Support has topped out for the Conservatives."
In all his door-to-door campaigning, James says he never once encountered a voter in favour of John Tory's stand on funding faith-based schools. Since Tory himself has now flip-flopped on his signature promise, the sense here is that, as of the moment, the undecideds are on the rise.
And that, Brad James says, can only be good news for Howard Hampton and a great many NDP candidates across the province.
"Early in the campaign, people wanted to talk about nothing but the promise breaking," he says. "But now, people want to hear about what you are about. It's been hard to rise above the din created by the Liberals and the Tories - but it's happening.
"People are giving Howard Hampton a listen now - and what they're getting is a good, reliable message."
What it may mean come next Wednesday, the candidate suggests, is a lot of undecideds deciding they have had it with disappointments and will turn, instead, to something untried.
"And this," James says, "has got to increase the prospects of a minority government."
Roy MacGregor